Recovery Summer and the big fade
So how goes the economic news today? The job market?
The jobless claims data remain the weakest indicator of labor market activity. On the face of it, the rise in the four-week average to the highest level since the beginning of March points to a weakening in the labor market and a potential decline in private payrolls. … we find the level and direction in jobless claims somewhat troubling and the increase is likely to feed double-dip fears. (RDQ Economics)
How about on the factory floor?
Forward momentum is slowing down in the manufacturing sector … price pressures have virtually vanished in the short space of a month.” (IHS Global)
How about overall economic growth?
Incoming data have led us to lower our tracking of second quarter GDP from 4.0% to 3.2%. In addition, the ongoing tightening in financial conditions is leading us to mark down our projection for third quarter GDP from 4.0% to 3.0%. Since the intensification of the European crisis in late April, the risks to US economic growth have been tilting to the downside. The latest round of data confirm that the sovereign crisis transmission channels have been operative and weighing on the economy: export orders tanked, confidence has stumbled, and the hit to households’ equity wealth is becoming a considerable impediment to consumer spending (JPMorgan Chase)
Me: More and more arrows seems to be tilting the wrong way. I don’t know if there will be a double-dip recession, but the cake is rapidly being baked for a weak economy on election day in November.