Yesterday, I reviewed the outstanding performance of the market three months after midterm elections. I also noted that the third years of the presidential cycle tend to be very bullish. The fourth year of presidential terms, along with first and second years, tend to be much less consistently bullish than third years.
These two charts pretty well sum up one version of the economic impact of the White House tax plan — such as raising high-end tax rates — at least according to a computer model run by the conservative Heritage Foundation. You can disagree with the modelling, I suppose. But I am not sure any model would show higher taxes boosting the economy right now.
Looking for some bipartisan solutions to America’s economic problems?
Well, I just read a great book on U.S. economic policy that is definitely worth checking out: “Seeds of Destruction” written by Glenn Hubbard and Peter Navarro. Hubbard is the former head of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush and is now dean of Columbia Business School. Navarro, a Democrat, is a business professor at the University of California, Irvine and author of “The Coming China Wars.”
That is the sort of question I get all the time from my business and banking contacts. And the White House may try to end run the Senate by temporarily appointing Warren to head the new consumer finance regulator. But how bad would she be for business and Wall Street (assuming she would be negative)? Here is how her opponents put it: “Let’s put an ideologue at the head of a new regulatory agency with extremely broad and undefined powers in a nation where business is crippled by uncertainty? Hey, what could go wrong?”