10 reasons the GOP might do even better than expected
My call is 64 and 9. But Super-smart, super-plugged-in Washington political analyst Dan Clifton of Strategas lays out his reasoning for a mega-tsunami:
1. The House Has Never Flipped Parties Without The Senate Also Flipping. In the seven cases where the House and Senate flipped together, the Senate was not expected to change parties in six of those elections, similar to consensus expectations for today’s election.
2. The Reliable Gallup Generic Ballot Is Indicating The Dems Will Lose 80+ Seats. If the GOP wins even 60-65 seats, the Senate will also likely flip.
3. Roughly 70 Pct Of Competitive Districts Go To The Challenging Party In A Wave Election. With 100 competitive seats in the House and 15 competitive Senate seats, the formula suggests the GOP will win 70 House seats and 10 Senate seats.
4. GOP Enthusiasm Advantage Is 63-37, Up From 44-35 In 1994.
5. Obama’s Approval Rating Is 44 Pct, 2 Pct Lower Than Clinton’s Mid-Term Approval.
6. Congressional Approval Rating Is At Its Lowest Level Ever.
7. Only 33 Pct Of Voters Believe Members Of Congress Deserve Reelection, Down From 38 Pct In 1994. (33-56 2010, 38-45 1994)
8. The Ratio Of GOP To DEM Voters In This Election Is 55 To 40 Pct, Up From 49 To 44 Pct In 1994.
9. Just 32 Pct Of Voters Believe The Dems Will Keep The House, Leading To Lower Voter
Turnout Among The Dems.
10. State By State Polling Is More Than Likely Oversampling Dem Turnout Based On Overstated 2006 & 2008 Data.