More on states going bankrupt, this time with added Felix Salmon goodness
Felix Salmon — who, like me, works at Reuters but, unlike me, is officially a citizen of no nation and operates from a specially modified Yakovlev “Yak” 77 that only lands to refuel and take on provisions — comments on my post about GOP plans to push states into bankruptcy:
If it were implemented, or if it even looked like it might get implemented, prices of municipal bonds would plunge, and most states would find it pretty much impossible to borrow money. As such, facing a massive and immediate liquidity crisis, they would be in more need of a federal bailout than before the bankruptcy legislation was seriously mooted.
The fact is that there’s only one reason to invent a Chapter 8 bankruptcy provision for states—and that’s to come up with an efficient and legal way to impose losses on bondholders and other creditors. (Chapter 9, which applies to cities and other municipal entities, doesn’t apply to states.) The creditors, fully aware of this, would immediately cease lending, certainly to the rockier states like California, Illinois, and New York. That’s not what we want. As a result, unless or until those states can bring their budgets into a primary surplus, introducing such a provision would certainly do more harm than good. And if those states can bring their budgets into a primary surplus, then we don’t need the bankruptcy provision, since they’ll be easily capable of rolling over their debts.
If the states had a bankruptcy provision all along, then I’m sure some people would be thinking seriously about whether it made sense for one or more states to file. But they don’t, and there’s basically no way of getting there from here. As such, the idea’s a non-starter.
Wow, states not being able to borrow. That sounds more like a feature than a bug to me. This would give governors like Chris Christie another tool in their arsenal. Look for legislation along this line next year.