A handy chart from JPMorgan:
Is America becoming less politically stable? A glance at some foreign newspapers would certainly give that impression. This is an important economic question. The global primacy of Treasury bonds and the dollar stems mostly from the nation’s massive economic might. But confidence in U.S. political stability also plays a role. The shooting of Arizona Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, though tragic, shouldn’t alter those perceptions — unless freedom of speech suffers.
Amateur criminal psychologists in the Democratic Party and liberal punditocracy have been quick to blame conservative political rhetoric for helping nudge an unbalanced 22-year-old into acting on his murderous impulses. Pointed charges have been flung at the Tea Party movement and at Sarah Palin. In 2008, her political team created an online map that featured 20 targeted Democratic congressional districts identified by crosshairs, including that of Giffords.
There’s no evidence at this stage that the shooter — whose bizarre anti-government rants centered on the use of grammar as mind control — ever saw the Palin map or even favored right-wing punditry. And Democratic operatives created similar midterm maps targeting Republicans. Within reason, though, even hard-hitting imagery is not necessarily sinister: political contests, like sports, are steeped in martial metaphors. Bids for election, for instance, are referred to as campaigns.
Yet political violence has been rare in the United States in recent years. That’s despite the disputed 2000 presidential election, the unpopular Iraq war and the election of the first black president. Indeed, the World Bank ranks America above the UK when it comes to “political stability and absence of violence.” And the U.S. rank has actually been on the rise in recent years.
That ranking partly reflects the fact that even heated talk doesn’t cause instability. But if the freedom to indulge in such rhetoric and to protest is curtailed, it can be a different story — one reason, perhaps, why China receives low marks from the World Bank. So it’s disturbing that some in Congress are already working on new laws to limit political speech, in addition to ongoing attacks on talk radio. Those efforts, if they move toward limiting legitimate expression, should worry global investors far more than a one-off lunatic act, however shocking its results.