James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Democrat control of Senate could fall victim to Obamacare

February 3, 2011

Ed Carson of IBD’s Capital Hill blog, highlight the 11 red state senators who voted against repealing Obamacare:

Eleven Democrats up for re-election next year represent states in which Republicans won a majority of the 2010 popular vote for House seats: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Especially vulnerable:

* Montana’s Jon Tester and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill won in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote.

* Ben Nelson of Nebraska may have sealed his fate with his infamous “Cornhusker Kickback” in exchange for being the 60th ObamaCare vote.

* Virginia’s Jim Webb, who narrowly won in 2006, is at least semi-vulnerable. And he could retire after a single term, some have speculated.

Meanwhile, a 12th red-state Democrat, North Dakota’s Kent Conrad, recently announced he would not seek another term. That seems a likely GOP pickup.

Some other longtime Democratic senators could choose to retire, especially if they face the prospect of a grueling campaign. For example, Wisconsin’s Herb Kohl will be 77 in 2012.

I know it’s early, but it would be  very surprising, I think, for Rs not to retake the Senate next year. The Dems really needed to make a better showing in 2010 given how many seats they have to defend in 2012 and 2014.

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