Comments on: The $4 trillion gap: Obama vs. Ryan, an apples-to-apples budget comparison http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/04/20/the-4-trillion-gap-obama-vs-ryan-an-apples-to-apples-budget-comparison/ Politics and policy from inside Washington Sun, 07 Apr 2013 21:23:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: ceptri http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/04/20/the-4-trillion-gap-obama-vs-ryan-an-apples-to-apples-budget-comparison/comment-page-1/#comment-11503 ceptri Wed, 20 Apr 2011 21:13:08 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/?p=6419#comment-11503 Two points: 1) Can you explain a little why you took the 2.4 number instead of the 3.4 number, it seems like your assuming the 2.4 because you assume Obama is not going to let the bush-era tax cuts expire (even though it seems like he pretty explicitly said he would). 2) You mention Obama's rosy economic forecast, but you did not mention Ryan's pretty unbelievable forecast (from http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/budget/ryan-plan-pushes-optimism-to-the-outer-limits-20110405) "If Rep. Paul Ryan’s newly unveiled 2012 budget is signed into law, this is what Ryan’s economic forecasters say will happen: The unemployment rate will plunge by 2.5 percentage points. The still-sinking housing market will roar back in a brand new boom. The federal government will collect $100 billion more in income tax revenues than it otherwise would have. And that’s just in the first year. By 2015, the forecasters say, unemployment will fall to 4 percent. By 2021, it will be a nearly unprecedented 2.8 percent." I don't know if unemployment has ever been 2.8 percent. That seems very suspect to me. Two points:
1) Can you explain a little why you took the 2.4 number instead of the 3.4 number, it seems like your assuming the 2.4 because you assume Obama is not going to let the bush-era tax cuts expire (even though it seems like he pretty explicitly said he would).

2) You mention Obama’s rosy economic forecast, but you did not mention Ryan’s pretty unbelievable forecast
(from http://mobile.nationaljournal.com/budget  /ryan-plan-pushes-optimism-to-the-outer -limits-20110405)

“If Rep. Paul Ryan’s newly unveiled 2012 budget is signed into law, this is what Ryan’s economic forecasters say will happen: The unemployment rate will plunge by 2.5 percentage points. The still-sinking housing market will roar back in a brand new boom. The federal government will collect $100 billion more in income tax revenues than it otherwise would have.

And that’s just in the first year. By 2015, the forecasters say, unemployment will fall to 4 percent. By 2021, it will be a nearly unprecedented 2.8 percent.”

I don’t know if unemployment has ever been 2.8 percent. That seems very suspect to me.

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