Downside risks to a Ryan presidential run

April 26, 2011

Some excellent points by AllahPundit:

Would he be a unifying, consensus figure? He voted for TARP, the tax on AIG bonuses, and the auto bailout. Some would forgive him for that given his leadership on the 2012 budget, but some — like the libertarian wing — wouldn’t. Meanwhile, Democrats are planning to use his budget proposal to drive a wedge within the party by forcing a vote in the Senate and making centrist Republicans choke on the Medicare and tax provisions. Collins has already said she opposes his program; doubtless there are others. Imagine a presidential campaign where the candidate’s signature piece of legislation is hit with attack ads showcasing opposition from the moderates in his own party.

Like it or not, he’d be a huge risk with seniors given the left’s nascent “Mediscare” campaign against him. In 18 months, for many low-information voters, he’ll be the grinch who wants to take away grandma’s heart medicine to save a few pennies. In fact, Democrats are so giddy about their demagogic opportunities that they think they might be able to target his House seat, never mind a presidential bid. Ryan could and would undo some of that damage on the stump simply through argumentation and personal charm, but he wouldn’t undo all of it. I think the appeal of him running lies mainly in the fact that, given how closely identified he is already with entitlement reform, if he were viable as a potential nominee then that would necessarily mean the public is open to serious action on deficit reduction — which is a glorious thought. Are they? Maybe a little, but how about after another year and a half of bareknuckle scare tactics?

As a gloss on this, read Robert Samuelson’s indictment of the “adult in the room”who somehow never manages to act in a remotely adult fashion when it comes to the country’s long-term fiscal challenges. That’s actually the best argument for a Ryan run — although he’d be a longshot to win, it’d give him six solid months in the general election to expose Obama as a fraud on deficit reduction and hopefully pressure him into ass-saving fiscal action.

 

2 comments

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“In 18 months, for many low-information voters, he’ll be the grinch who wants to take away grandma’s heart medicine to save a few pennies.”
I have yet to hear any additional “information” from Republicans that explains how this is not true. If you take the Medicare budget, cut it back by those “few pennies” and then give it to seniors to buy their own coverage from private, for-profit insurance companies, there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that those insurance companies are going to give them the same coverage they were getting from Medicare.
Please explain to me, James, what “information” do you have that I don’t have that will explain why purchasing a service from a for-profit company will be cheaper than getting that same service from a non-profit government agency.

Posted by 4ngry4merican | Report as abusive

At any rate, whoever wins the actual presidential office will find that they will be the last supreme leader of the world. According to the IMF, America will drop to #2
in 2016.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-bom bshell-age-of-america-about-to-end-2011- 04-25?link=MW_home_latest_news
April 25, 2011
IMF bombshell: Age of America Nears End
Commentary: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016
By Brett Arends, MarketWatch

“China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.

“(Most people are)miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates. That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms.

In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis (as posted on their web site) …looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.

The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt. “

Posted by limapie | Report as abusive