Is Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Path to Prosperity” potentially the most important and necessary piece of economic legislation since President Ronald Reagan’s tax cuts in 1981? Quite likely. The blueprint embraces free markets and individual choice to radically reshape America’s social welfare state for the 21st century and shrink government. Instead of looking for ways to finance an ever-expanding public sector, it would prevent Washington from growing to a projected 45 percent of GDP by 2050 (vs. 24 percent today) and instead reduce it to just under 15 percent by that year. Ryan would downsize government to its smallest size since 1950 and prevent the Europeanization of the American economy. The Ryan Path embraces dynamic growth, not managed decline and stagnation.
Private equity firms could get roped into helping pay for U.S. tax reform. To help offset the budget cost of lower corporate rates, my industry sources tell me, Democrats in Congress are considering an attempt to alter the treatment of publicly traded partnerships. Such a move could bring in several billions of dollars a year from Blackstone, Fortress and Apollo, the latest buyout shop to move to the New York Stock Exchange. A similar legislative effort in 2007 failed, but this one might have legs.
The Obama 2012 presidential campaign, which has now officially sprung to life, confronts a vexing political puzzle. The unemployment rate is plummeting. After the March jobs report release, White House economic adviser Austan Goolsbee pointedly noted that the full percentage-point decline over the past four months is the largest such drop since 1984.