James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Kudlow on Washington’s spending problem

July 7, 2011

Larry Kudlow breaks it down, even has a chart!:

The blue line you see is President Obama’s budget. The green line is Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget.

Now, Paul Ryan’s is of course a couple of trillion dollars lower than Obama’s over the next ten years. But what do they both have in common? They both go up. As in spending more, not less. As in, roughly $40-45 trillion dollars more. That’s a whole lot of taxpayer money, folks. Now why is this? It’s because of something called the “current services baseline” which includes population and inflation increases built into the budget. Entitlements have their own formulas. So when you hear a politician tell you they’re cutting spending, they’re actually referring only to reducing the growth of spending. Rarely, if ever, do they actually reduce the level of spending.

Here’s yet another scam: big budget deals say they “cut” (there’s that word again) a couple of trillion dollars over ten years. But most of it is targeted for the last couple of years, as in years eight, nine, and ten. So basically it’ll never happen. It’s four or five congresses from now. Laws change. Deals are broken. At the end of the day, the only thing that really matters is next year’s budget. Will it be cut?

When I look at this budget stuff, I focus on spending, taxes, interest and debt as a share of the economy. That way I don’t get dragged down into the world of comparing baselines. Here, for instance, is how the CBO looks at the Ryan plan:

 

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