James Pethokoukis

Will Hurricane Irene be a black swan for the U.S. economy?

August 25, 2011

The U.S. economy is growing very slowly, just 0.4 percent in the first quarter, 1.3 percent in the second. And it might not do a whole better the rest of the year. That’s a problem. A recent study from theĀ Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947, when two-quarter annualized real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 48 percent of the time. (And when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time.

On climate change, Romney is pretty consistent

August 25, 2011

What Mitt Romney is saying today about climate change is pretty much what he’s been saying all along. First, here is what he said yesterday: