James Pethokoukis

Kudlow: Maybe a V for 2010

September 16, 2009

Larry Kudlow gives the bull case:

I wonder if Mr. Bernanke isn’t underestimating the very substantial monetary stimulus that he has injected into the economy, going back about nine months. This is the Milton Friedman monetarist experiment. The Fed’s balance sheet has grown by over $1 trillion; various money-supply measures are running about 10 percent on average; the Treasury yield curve is very steep and positively sloped; and of course the target rate is near zero. Add to that $1,000 gold and a weak dollar.

A case for long-term high unemployment in America

September 11, 2009

A fantastic article by Joshua Cooper Ramo looking at whether the US is doomed to years of high unemployment. Read the whole thing, but this a key bit:

The speech that didn’t matter

September 10, 2009

President Barack Obama’s speech on Wednesday night went about as well as the White House could have reasonably hoped.

Obama needs a new healthcare plan, not a new speech

September 9, 2009

Crazy — at least according to a snarky definition — is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

First financial reform, then healthcare

September 9, 2009

I think this is a pretty smart piece of political analysis from my friend Barry Ritholtz:

The trigger that won’t get pulled

September 9, 2009

My pal Dan Clifton over at the Strategas Group gives his superinformed two cents:

Why the Dems may implode in 2010: 4 scenarios

September 9, 2009

A Democratic meltdown next year? Washington is abuzz with speculation by prominent political handicappers such as Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg. Republican hopes for a huge congressional comeback in the 2010 midterm elections rest on three pillars:

More on the weak U.S. labor market

September 8, 2009

This analysis from Ed Yardeni:

Based on the previous two cycles, the unemployment rate should peak in 15-19 months, or sometime between September 2010 and January 2011! When might employment recover? The previous two experiences suggest this might occur within the next 11-21 months after June, or between May 2010 and March 2011.

How high unemployment undercuts Obama’s agenda

September 4, 2009

At the end of the 2000 film “The Perfect Storm”, a Gloucester swordfish boat captain (played by George Clooney) finally accepts that his crew won’t escape a monster hurricane in the North Atlantic. “She’s not gonna let us out,” he says as the trapped vessel moves from the eye of the storm and back into the raging winds.

What does 9.7 percent unemployment mean for Democrats?

September 4, 2009

Marc Ambinder looks at this question and concludes a) that anything under 10 percent is better than expected, b) 0.3 percent makes a big difference politically, and c) Team Obama will be able to more or less successfully blame Bush. His bottom line: