James Pethokoukis

Will GOP midterm win help reelect Obama in 2012? Maybe not

October 21, 2010

The Washington consensus is that if the GOP takes at least the House, it will give Obama a political foil and give his 2012 election hopes a big boost. And, the media tell us, the GOP presidential field is weak:

Making sense of Sarah Palin’s third-party threat

October 19, 2010

For Sarah Palin, it’s Tea Party first, Republican Party second:

Some in the GOP, it’s their last shot, it’s their last chance. We will lose faith, and we will be disappointed and disenchanted from them if they start straying from the bedrock principles. … If they start straying, then why not a 3rd party?

Is the Democratic comeback fizzling?

October 19, 2010

Numbers from Gallup seem to say it is.

Gallup’s tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds Republicans leading Democrats by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%, and by 11- and 17-point margins among likely voters, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied.

Five depressing thoughts from Goldman Sachs

October 6, 2010

Via the GS econ team (as excerpted and outlined by me):

1. We see two main scenarios for the economy over the next 6-9 months—a fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1½%-2% rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10%, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession.

Obama’s sinking polls

October 6, 2010

Presidential approval ratings are hugely influential in congressional midterms. Unfortunately for Democrats:

The House GOP ‘Pledge to America’

September 23, 2010

Here is my Reuters Breakingviews columntorial (half column, half editorial)  on the agenda from House Republicans:

The midterms and the markets, take two

September 21, 2010

A bit more from Ed Yardeni on one of my favorite topics:

Yesterday, I reviewed the outstanding performance of the market three months after midterm elections. I also noted that the third years of the presidential cycle tend to be very bullish. The fourth year of presidential terms, along with first and second years, tend to be much less consistently bullish than third years.

How will the midterms affect the stock market?

September 20, 2010

The always insightful and interesting Ed Yardeni gathers some numbers on elections and market returns:

The 9.6 percent unemployment rate and the 2010 midterms

September 3, 2010

Today’s dismal unemployment report fully locks in the autumn political narrative:

And the Senate isn’t looking so hot, either …

September 2, 2010

The respected Cook Political Report:

The macro political landscape strongly favors Republicans and it is not likely that it will change much between now and November. As a result, a look at the 37 Senate races on the ballot shows some deterioration for Democrats in some of the 19 seats they are defending, while Republicans’ prospects have stayed the same or improved slightly in their most competitive seats. As such, it is now likely that Republicans will score a net gain of between seven and nine seats. While there is a plausible argument for how Republicans could net the 10 seats they need to win the majority, it remains an unlikely scenario today.