Certainly the “whisper estimate” for Democratic House loses is now 50+ with plenty of upside risk. But my pal Andy Roth at the Club for Growth thinks the upside number could be quite large, indeed:
The latest Gallup numbers are not good for the White House or congressional Democrats. The overnight tracking has Barack Obama’s approval-disapproval rating at 41 percent-52 percent. Based on the Rahm Emanuel formulation that for every point below 50 percent, the Dems lose five House seats, it looks like the GOP will take the lower chamber. This bit from a Weekly Standard piece I did pretty much explains it:
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that:
1. 58% oppose a proposal to have the federal government forgive a portion of the mortgage debt owned by troubled homeowners.
The Treasury Department has officially denied it is planning the mother of all mortgage bailouts. And I have no reason to doubt Team Geithner. But of course that assumes that the whole idea was not being cooked up by the White House political team (Rahm and Ax) and not the good folks at Treasury. During the financial reform debate, banking lobbyists continually complained that Geither and Summers had been usurped by R&A in policymaking. And I have gotten zero pushback from the WH. Food for thought. More to come.
One of the mysteries of the Great Recession is why unemployment rose so far so fast. The usual rule of thumb, Okun’s Law, called for a much lower rate of joblessness. The White House has been hoping that as the economy turned around, the labor market would outperform just as it underperformed during the downturn. As it turns out, the downturn was deeper than first thought, so the “snapback” scenario is less likely. This from JPMorgan:
President Barack Obama’s “recovery summer” has become a summer swoon. GDP growth has downshifted, as have his poll numbers. And with Democrats likely to suffer big losses in November’s elections, the president will have to rethink his economic agenda or face gridlock in 2011.
My pal Dan Clifton, political analyst over at Strategas, sees Democrats losing 50-60 seats in the House and 5-7 in the Senate. Noting Obama’s low approval rating — 44 percent according to Gallup — he produced this chart: