James Pethokoukis

Politics and policy from inside Washington

Bernanke could be latest victim of Massachusetts Miracle

Jan 22, 2010 14:20 UTC

It seems that support for the renomination of Ben Bernanke is falling by the day, says ABC News. Liberals in Congress want him gone. Then again, they want pretty much the whole Obama economic team gone. But Geithner and Summers aren’t up for a Senate vote. Bernanke is. And if Dems start bailing, don’t expect Republicans to save him. No politician in America gains anything by voting for Bernanke. A “no” vote is a free vote. Wall Street still loves him, though. Geithner, too.

UPDATE: Count Russ Feingold of Wisconsin as a “no” vote.

UPDATE 2: Boxer of California , too

UPDATE 3:  Nevada’s Reid is non-committal

COMMENT

Unfortnately, you are wrong about no one liking Greenspan. The fools at Time magazine like him. All the bankers, other Fed officials and bankers who never saw the crash comming like him. Almost all the hacks on CNBC, and all the bankers and businessman that benefited from the bailouts whom they interview, like him.

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More on the new Obama bank plan

Jan 21, 2010 14:18 UTC

Mark Calabria of Cato, a supersmart observer of the financial sector in DC, gives me his two cents:

I find it hard to believe that the govt has any clue as to what correct size and level of trading is for banks. Sounds like nothing more than cheap politics.

Ex ante, no one told Bear was too big. So is the size limit going to be even smaller than Bear?

Obama misses one reason for banks becoming so large: their fund advantage due to “too big to fail” – if he were serious he’d come up with a plan to end too big to fail, rather than a plan for permanent bailouts.

And where’s the break-up plan for fannie and freddie? Just seems like just picking winners and losers based on politics.

I don’t see it going anywhere in the Senate [though I'm] not completely ruling it out. House could easily pass something so stupid – it is the House after all.

It does complicate financial reform – Obama might just be killing financial reform – hard enough time reaching agreement.

COMMENT

Taxes should be paid by all for our shared services: police, courts, military etc. We can’t have our own armies or competing courts and police departments. This is the role of government. “Fairly” raising those taxes will always be contentious. Our current byzantine system screams for reform. The “bank tax” is just the latest example of how far off course Washington has gone. Taxes are being wielded as clubs to inflict punishment on those out of favor with the current group of tyrants.

Through “sin” taxes, corporate taxes, “windfall profits” etc. we demonize profits and undermine the capitalist system that has put the US on top. If we go along with this we allow the left to imply that profits are immoral.

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Nicole Gelinas on the new Obama plan

Jan 21, 2010 13:27 UTC

She emails me on the Obama plan to limit bank activities:

1) I think that they are now panicking and veering from solution to solution. They will roil the markets and just make themselves panic more. Politically, i’m not sure. It will be hard for republicans to be against this, just like it is hard for them to fight the bank tax. Although if markets fall by hundreds of points, it gives the GOP an opening to say that Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing.

2) As for the merits – the problem is, Bear and Lehman didn’t have insured deposits, didn’t have recourse to the Fed, etc., but still posed significant risk. Why? Because by securitizing, derivative-izing and short-term-izing all manner of long-term debt, non-commercial banks made the economy’s store of credit much more vulnerable to market exuberance on the upside and panic on the downside. Mortgage and other credit depended at the margins not on bank balance sheets but on speculative demand.

3) To deal with that, I think we need consistent (and likely higher) margin requirements, capital requirements, clearing rules, etc., no matter who is holding/trading the debt. That would protect the economy more by putting a buffer between the pure, raw market and these debt instruments, just as we did long ago with equity markets.

4) I fear that if we curtail the big banks without doing these other things, the risks will just move, and people will continue to move their savings accounts into money markets to fund these risks. In fact, that is why we got rid of glass-steagall on the first place – to let banks compete fairly with the non-banks that had stolen their business.

5) So, do the margin and capital stuff to recognize the world we live in today … Doing that will make the economy better able to withstand financial failure, anyway, and the market, knowing this, will bring the institutions down to manageable size.

Obama escalates his War on Wall Street

Jan 21, 2010 13:14 UTC

Obama’s plan to limit risky activities at big banks is more about forcing Republicans to take tough votes than preventing another credit meltdown.The Volcker Plan was already rejected by the WH econ team (Summers, Geithner) and this is being pushed by the political team (Rahmbo, Axelrod) in the wake of the Massachusetts Meltdown. (In fact, this may help tamp down pressure from congressional Dems to dump the econ team.)

The WH can’t trumpet the economy, can’t trumpet healthcare, so Plan C is to go after Wall Street and make the GOP look like its best friend. Who cares that some of the worst problem children of the financial crisis were relatively small and undiversified? Wasn’t it regulator pushing for Wells Fargo to absorb Wachovia, and BofA to absorb Merrill? But I think the Dems will be surprised at how many GOPers might go along with this, starting with John McCain who has already advocated the return of Glass Steagall. But he will be far from the only one.

COMMENT

Maybe I don’t really understand what Glass Steagall was all about, but I’m pretty sure I understand that we didn’t have a meltdown as humongous as 2008 when it was in effect. And I also wonder if 2001 wasn’t also partially a result of it not being in place.

I’m a big free-market guy, but it sure seems to me that doing away with that act was a factor in the toxic mix of 2008. It certainly didn’t start the whole mess. The government did that. Thanks Barney, Chris and Franklin. But letting the riverboat gamblers get their greedy hands on mom and pop’s savings sure had something to do with it.

Gramm made a mistake, and it hurt the country.

I’m not with the idiot in the White House on much, but this is one situation where he has a point. Of course, he couldn’t care less about helping the country. He is only playing his class warfare games because his pants have been pulled down on every other idiotic Marxist scheme he has tried so far.

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Scott Brown the Black Swan

Jan 20, 2010 17:27 UTC

Ed Yardeni expands on my theme:

The political upset in Massachusetts yesterday may very well be one of those bullish Black Swans. In his 2007 book on this subject, Nassim Nicholas Taleb explained: “What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

Brown’s upset victory certainly wasn’t expected even a week ago. No one seriously expected that the Democrats would lose “Kennedy’s seat” in the Senate. This development is bound to have a major impact on the political balance in Washington. This outcome certainly makes sense after the fact. It wasn’t predictable prospectively, but it is obvious retrospectively.

Last summer, I started to project that Gridlock might win in the Congressional elections on November 2, 2010. I certainly didn’t expect that it might win at the beginning of this year, and just in time to checkmate PelosiCare. The Constitution of the United States of America was written by lawyers. They intentionally designed a political system of “checks and balances” that dispersed political power among three branches of government. We call it Gridlock, which has a negative connotation, but that was the intended outcome more often than not. Our system works best when it doesn’t work for the promoters of policies that are not in the national interest.

COMMENT

See Federalist #51.

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Brown win could spark Obama war on Wall Street

Jan 20, 2010 16:06 UTC

Scott Brown’s stunning capture of the Massachusetts Senate seat held for decades by Ted Kennedy was a political black swan, a near-unpredictable event.

The result ends the Democratic supermajority in the Senate and leaves key parts of the Obama agenda in deep trouble. But the biggest loser just might be Wall Street. Desperate Democrats may see anti-bank populism as a way of holding power as the November midterm elections approach.

The last days of the heated Senate race saw the first attempts at that political gambit. Democratic candidate Martha Coakley’s allies in Washington, both the White House and national Democratic officials, used President Barack Obama’s proposed bank tax as a cudgel to bash Brown via emailings and telephone calls.

But the game was probably over by then for Coakley. A combination of high unemployment, an unpopular healthcare reform bill and the candidate’s own lack of charisma and effective experience were more than enough to clinch an easy Brown victory.

A historic victory, really. It is hard to overstate just how “blue” a state Massachusetts is. Obama won it by 26 percentage points in 2008. Until now the state’s 10 U.S House members, two U.S. senators and all statewide officers were Democrats. The state hasn’t had a Republican U.S. senator since 1979. And, of course, the seat Brown captured had been held by the late Edward Kennedy since 1962.

Now Brown’s victory threatens the healthcare reform bill that Kennedy championed on his deathbed. Democrats could still ram it through before Brown makes it to Washington. But potential legal challenges make that unlikely.

As it is, Brown’s election is enough of a systemic shock to freeze the political process on Capitol Hill. Moderate Democrats in both chambers are nervous about their previous “yes” votes for healthcare. They may be unwilling to make any more. The prospects look even bleaker for cap-and-trade energy legislation, a bill with even less support than healthcare.

Financial reform legislation was already likely to get milder rather than stronger. But not so the rhetoric. Unable to trumpet the economy, hitting Wall Street is one of the few political bullets Democrats have left.

So expect the Obama administration to go all out for the bank tax with increasingly harsh words for big financial institutions. Democrats may also be more willing to consider controversial proposals banks hate, like letting judges rework mortgages. But given the Massachusetts precedent, it may not be enough to save the party from a wipeout in the fall.

COMMENT

The real Obama is coming out. He literally hates big business because he believes that most people are victoms of our capitalistic system. Profit is an evil thing. His definition of fairness is socialism. His programs will all be anti business and lead to more big government.

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Mass. U.S. Senate showdown: Brown vs. Coakley (Live Blogging)

Jan 20, 2010 00:09 UTC

Live blogging the Massachusetts US Senate race between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown:

9:30  Scott Brown wins, Martha Coakley loses. Also losing: Wall Street as POTUS, Dems will ramp up attacks. I’m done for tonight.

9:24 Brown has accepted concession call from Coakley (per Fox)

9:22 AP calls is for Brown

9:20 Boston Globe says Coakley calls Brown to concede

9: 18 70 percent of vote in, Brown +7

9:13 All eyes on Boston returns where Coakley seems to be strengthening

9:09 If margin of Brown lead holds up, I can’t see him not being seated ASAP

9:04 60 percent in in, Brown +7

9:02 Coakley get not getting the Boston vote she needs.

9:00 I have yet to hear from or talk to a single political analyst at this point who thinks the race is still in doubt. Brown +5 with 52 percent in.

8:58 45 percent in Brown +5

8:47 Wasserman at Cook Report: Cook Report does NOT officially call races, but if I were working for a network I would have enough #s to project: Brown Wins

8:42 Brown +7 with 21 percent percent in.

8:35 Dave Wasserman of Cook Report: Brown needed 59% in Danvers, he got 63%. Brown consistently overperforming our model by 3-4 % pts

8:32 With 11 percent in, 53-46 Brown

8:26 Brown seems to be overperforming in key counties

8:23 With 4 percent in, 52-47 Brown

8:10 Preliminary election day poll from Rasmussen:

  • Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41%.
  • Coakley also has a big advantage among those who made up their mind more than a month ago.
  • Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters for Brown said they were voting for him rather than against Coakley.
  • Sixty-six percent (66%) of Coakley voters said they were voting for her rather than against Brown.
  • 22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling.

8:07 Politico: Sr. Dem on Boston ‘High turnout in more conservative wards. Not high enough in Af-Am, Latino and more progressive wards.’

8:03 Brown source: Cautiously confident

7:51 Dem meme for the night is that Coakley was a lousy candidate in a bad environment; any other major Mass. Dem would have won by double-digits

7:44 TheHyperFix: From a Dem operative in Mass. : “Boston turnout numbers not good for Coakley.”

7: 40 On MSNBC: Pat Buchanan  says Brown victory means GOPers should run as populist, Tea Party in 2010

7:34 Pundit Review: Very upbeat atmosphere here at Brown HQ.

7:30 Chris Matthews: Could be a “sad night, a tragic night” for those who want healthcare.

7:20 Polls in MA close in 40 minutes

7:17 WSJ poll finds only 35 percent approval of Obama agenda, though his personal approval ratings are above 50 percent.

7:09 Intrade betting market puts Brown at 80 percent and steady. Waiting for hard numbers.

7:02 MSNBC’s Chris Matthews says Brown election would be “deliberate, pre-meditated” murder of healthcare reform

COMMENT

Pelosi and Reid tried to use Ted Kennedy. Ted wanted Health care for every one, but not the way the democrats were applying it. Mass. has told Obama what our great country is about.It isn`t over yet untill Pelosi, Reid, and all the bribed congress are removed also.If the whole U.S. congress does not begin to work together for us soon,we will have to fire a lot of them on both sides.
WE THE PEOPLE.

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Brown vs. Coakley: The Bay State Brawl!

Jan 19, 2010 18:33 UTC

A few thoughts and observation about  the US Senate race Massachusetts:

1) No exit polls, so we’ll have to wait for the actual vote count as well as turnout in key counties.

2)  Intrade betting market has Scott Brown at 78 percent, up 10 points in the past hour or so.

3) Reporters keep looking for a Coakley surge but have had a tough time finding one .

4) Even a narrow Coakley win will leave lots of Washington Dems wondering if they should retire in what looks like a strong Republican year.

5)  Either way, expect Dems to do a lot more Wall Street bashing since they think the issue stuck to Rs during the race.

More to come …

Latest on Obama bank tax

Jan 14, 2010 17:26 UTC

The U.S. bank tax isn’t dead on arrival, amazingly. Congress, particularly the Senate, has been a graveyard for punitive financial reform. And banks are betting the new levy will suffer a similar fate. Don’t count it. A clever design, along with a determined White House push, means Wall Street may have to pay up. A few more points:

– Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley get hurt the most
– Tax is likely to be permanent despite WH claim
– Republicans may not be as opposed as what you might think. Watch Grassley and Snowe.
– Could be paired with a tax cut bill.
–part of broad WH political push to run against Wall Street to help 2010 Dems

COMMENT

Politics and the bank tax, and will Congress approve of this Presidential budget item?

Pundits are forecasting the Senate may say not to the President’s proposal for a “financial crisis responsibility fee” (bank tax) as part of the President’s 2011 budget out in February 2010. I disagree and believe the bank tax will be enacted, perhaps in a somewhat modified form.

The first break down of political sides should be the Democrats in the House and Senate voting “Yes” to support the President. Democrats are already trying to pile on and win some thunder (and sausage fund raising) with bank bonus tax bills too – and those should not pass.

But, will Republican Congressmen rush out their standard party-line against no new taxes, including this bank tax on Wall Street? Some have already, but others may show some refrain. Will New York State Congressman speak out against singling-out Wall Street for this significant bank tax increase? Some may, but others like Senator Schumer (D-NY) probably will not. This may explain why Schumer has been so silent in the public view lately, as he was probably in the loop on these developments. Same for Senator Dodd (D-CT) and this explains his recent retirement announcement even more.

Most Republicans have been very vocal against the TARP bailouts all along and also against Wall Street wheeling and dealing too.

The left-progressive populist movement wanted a wider financial-transaction tax – the Congressman DeFazio (D-OR) and Senator Harkin (D-IO) bills that our Traders Association is fighting with petitions- and the left wants to appeal to the more important political voting ground of Main Street versus (tiny yet rich) Wall Street in the Tale of Two Cities.

The Tea Party populist movement supports the Republican platform on no more: big government spending, tax increases, more regulation and intrusion.

This is a tricky political battle because it’s confusing which side Democrat or Republican better represents populist-anger on Main Street. Both want to appeal to those voters and there are many.

The President’s bank tax proposal is partially intended to suck the wind out of populist sails – by charging 100 billion of new taxes to Wall Street – bringing politics back towards the center, where he must operate from as President now. Lingering populist anger is also destructive to the recovery and governing.

Are Republicans going to take this bait now and rush to defend Wall Street, who is almost non-defensible in the public’s view at this point considering the overall environment on these issues?

If Republicans force a Presidential budget veto vote over the bank tax issue along, they will set themselves up for only losing choices in my view. On the one hand, defend Wall Street – and huge bonuses paid to executives rather than giving that fee money to TARP-lending taxpayers – which could serve to lose more Main Street votes. Or, on the other hand, support the bank tax and be hypocritical on their overall no new tax pledge.

I think Congress will approve the President’s budget on the bank tax and the President will use his political capital to see to it that they do. The President has declared Wall Street versus Main Street economic issues to be his prerogative and he will not let Congressional sausage-making process mess up the economy and finance the way it has with health care. The President is right! Plus, I expect the President to table the financial-transaction tax bills and new bonus tax bills too. Secretary Geithner and the President were clear on these being bad ideas and you can take their consistent no-drama Obama style to the bank.

Wall Street will continue to protest about the bank tax and there will be some deal making I presume. Perhaps to take it a little easier on other Washington attacks against Wall Street including financial reform, the Financial Crisis Commission, other Congressional hearings, white-collar criminal financial service investigations and enforcement actions, other regulations, other tax bills, and more.

This whole saga seems to be coming to a head in the U.S., just a short time after coming to a head in the UK with the banker bonus tax. Most of all, we don’t want a nasty financial-transaction tax on traders and investors!

Will Obama extends all Bush tax cuts?

Jan 13, 2010 15:26 UTC

That’s the DC buzz, that the WH will use bank tax to de facto pay for a 1-2 year extension of ALL the Bush tax cuts, including capital gains. The assumption was that the wealthier folks would be left out. But this would give Ds a tax cut to vote. With unemployment high and maybe going higher, Ds are scrambling for ideas.

COMMENT

A ploy too cynical for words. Bash the banks and tax ‘em to pay for Main Street’s (continuing) tax cuts. This is really getting out of hand.

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