James Pethokoukis

More on Obama’s reelection chances

November 10, 2010

Megan McArdle says I am being a tad too pessimistic about Obama’s reelection chances if unemployment is at 8.5 percent or higher two years from now:

Will 8.5 percent unemployment be enough to reelect Obama?

November 10, 2010

The Hill sets the economic bar awfully low:

Economists who study the labor market said this week that they expect unemployment in 2012 to average 8.5 percent, down more than a point from the 9.6 jobless rate of today. Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said every forecast she has studied predicts rapid job growth in 2012, even though the national number will still be a far cry from full employment. “It’s still going to be so high in 2012, but people are going to be feeling better,” Shierholz said.

Blaming the American public

November 8, 2010

If the Obama wants to be a one-termer, he should pay attention to people like Hendrik Hertzberg:

Kevin Warsh, a pro-growth advocate at the Fed

November 8, 2010

Great, great stuff from Fed member Kevin Warsh in the WSJ. After giving his perfunctory agreement with QEII, he gets after it with a rousing piece of advocacy:

Why 2011 will be the Year of the Tax Cut

November 3, 2010

American presidents usually win second terms, even if their parties suffer midterm blowouts. But President Barack Obama better not rely on history for a 2012 victory. To lift his political fortunes after Tuesday’s absolute shellacking — and those of the economy — he needs to work with incoming Republicans to do two big things: cut spending and cut taxes.  Here’s why:

Will Obama triangulate?

October 29, 2010

National Journal’s Ron Brownstein’s chat with President Obama last week:

It was clear that Obama has started to think seriously about how he will navigate a Washington with many more Republicans in it. But nothing about him suggested that he viewed the impending arrival of those Republicans as evidence that he needed to radically rethink his presidency. Obama sounded neither shell-shocked nor defiant. He seemed entirely focused on the practical: where he might work with Republicans, and where he expects confrontation (education, infrastructure, and energy in the first group; taxes, health care, and Social Security in the second).

Shock poll: Americans think Bush doing a better job than Obama (and more)

October 28, 2010

Some fascinating numbers from longtime Democratic pollster Doug Schoen (via U.S. News & World Report). Among them: Voters prefer Bush over Obama, want the GOP to control congress, favor extending all the Bush tax cuts, don’t favor another term for Obama and would give Palin nearly 20 percent of the vote if she ran as a third-party presidential candidate.

Could Obama’s re-election plan be to devalue the dollar?

October 28, 2010

Will President Obama get re-elected in 2012 if his party suffers a crushing midterm defeat? His political team likes to point to the example of Ronald Reagan. Congressional Republicans were crushed in the 1982 midterms, but the Gipper cruised to victory two years later.

Will GOP midterm win help reelect Obama in 2012? Maybe not

October 21, 2010

The Washington consensus is that if the GOP takes at least the House, it will give Obama a political foil and give his 2012 election hopes a big boost. And, the media tell us, the GOP presidential field is weak: