If former CNN anchorman Lou Dobbs decides to make an independent bid for president in 2012, he will probably find the political climate as hospitable for an insurgent run — if not more so — as it was in 1992, when Ross Perot captured a fifth of the popular vote. (It was the best showing by a third-party candidate since Bull Moose Teddy Roosevelt finished second with 27.4 percent of the vote in 1912.)

The dreary economic New Normal that is the aftermath of the Great Recession has created a huge political opening for Dobbs or Michael Bloomberg or Sarah Palin, or some other American with high visibility or deep pockets or both.

It was a slow-recovering economy and concern about big deficits that drove the Perot phenomenon. There’s a high probability both factors will be at play three years from now. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities forecasts annual budget deficits to average $1.2 trillion over the next three years. And the Federal Reserve is forecasting a so-so economic expansion that will leave unemployment over 7 percent in 2012. Overall, the nation’s economic mood might be a lot worse than it was in 1992.

Then you have a populist, anti-Wall Street sentiment that neither Democrats nor Republicans have been able to capture successfully. The result is that party loyalties are frayed, with the tea party movement one manifestation. According to the Pew Research Center, 36 percent of Americans identify themselves as independents, the highest number since 1992. And they seem to be up for grabs. Barack Obama won 52 percent of the independent vote in 2008. But a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Obama with a 61 percent disapproval rating among the group.

None of this means an independent would actually win. Rasmussen has Dobbs at 14 percent in a race with President Obama (42 percent) and Mitt Romney (34 percent.) With the more populist Palin replacing Romney, Dobbs gets 12 percent versus 44 percent for Obama and 37 percent for Palin.  Yet without Dobbs in the race, Romney is tied with Obama and Palin trails by just three. So an independent could, at the very least, radically alter the political landscape.

And not just for the GOP. Unhappiness about an escalation in the Afghanistan war and muddled healthcare reform could create a more liberal independent challenger. Take Howard Dean, for instance. The former Vermont governor and chairman of the Democratic National Committee has been ripping ObamaCare lately and says he would vote with Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent socialist, against it if he were a senator. And Dean sure knows how to use the Internet to raise money, as he showed in his 2004 run for the Democratic nomination.

But here is the bottom line: If the New Normal turns out to be worse than expected, with the GOP blamed for the original collapse and Democrats for a bungled remedy, an independent might accomplish much more than just being a spoiler.

How much Tim Pawlenty pay Walter Mondale to say this:

He brings an almost Jack Kemp-like fervor to cutting marginal tax rates; an important predicate for any presidential run may be how Pawlenty handles a recommendation from a task force he appointed that the state replace some corporate and individual taxes with consumption levies. His emphasis on taxes rankles many Minnesota Democrats. “There is a long line of progressive Republican governors in Minnesota who are big supporters of education,” says Walter Mondale, the former vice president and U.S. senator. “He is much more interested in tax-cutting and has broken with that tradition.”

Will Americans go big in 2012? President Obama is a smidgen under 6′2″, Mitt Romney is 6′2″, Sarah Palin is 5′5″ … Tell us more, New Scientist:

When the going gets tough, the presidents get taller. So says social psychologist Terry Pettijohn of Coastal Carolina University in Conway, South Carolina.

He looked at the heights, ages and facial attributes of the 11 elected US presidents over the past 75 years, and compared them with economic and social indicators such as unemployment and birth rates. “What we’re seeing is that taller candidates are preferred when times are more difficult,” says Pettijohn.

Hard times also make for presidents with larger chins and smaller eyes, says Pettijohn. He thinks that voters associate these features with strength and maturity - qualities that could be perceived toprovide security in troubled times. The results were presented last week at a meeting of the American Psychological Association in Toronto, Canada.

I had the pleasure this morning of attending a small breakfast gathering with South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, a potential contender for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Sanford talked a lot about his legal fight to reject stimulus money from the federal government. Well, not so much about the legal details, but more the philosophy behind his stand. He says he is extremely concerned that the government’s debt problems are approaching a “tipping point” that will lead to higher inflation and a weaker dollar — all characteristics of “banana republic economies.”  Sanford also said that Obama’s stiff-arming of GM creditors is an assault against private property rights and the rule of law, creating uncertainty in America’s business community about ” what the rules are” and potentially freezing business invesment here. ( He added that a meeting with folks on Wall Street confirmed his suspicions on this matter.)

I asked the governor about Democrats using concerns about the budget deficit as an excuse to raise taxes. He said he didn’t see much appetite out in America for higher taxes, given the success of the “tea party” movement and the rejection of tax-hikes measures in California.

A few observations:

1) He called himself a “low-key” kind of guy. I think that is a pretty  accurate self assessment, though it was pretty  early in the morning and he got into town late last night.

2) If Mitt Romney is a CEO, then Sanford came across as a CFO. It kind of reminded me of company conference call where the CEO gives that analsysts the sales job and then calls in the CFO to run through the numbers. I am not sure what kind of salesman Sanford would be as a presidential candidate, but he does comes acrosss as whip smart, even wonky guy.  Also a very “suburban” vibe.

3) Just a hunch, but I think he would market himself as a guy who could restructure government and make it leaner and more efficient, sort of governor for the nation. It wouldn’t be a “cult of personality” sort of campaign.