House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the cap-and-trade bill was about “jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs.” But liberal economist Paul Krugman tells National Public Radio a different story (thanks to OpenMarket):
It is turning out to be a very, VERY close vote in the House of Representatives. Some of the moderate Rs who were going to vote for it are weakening — like Mary Bono Mack of California. Earlier, it looked like Speaker Pelosi had the votes but was trying to get a big enough margin that politically vulnerable Ds could vote fopr it …now I think the issue is finding enough votes, period. Big gamble for Pelosi might be a bridge too far …
Just as a Congressional Budget Office estimate of the cost of healthcare reform ($1.6 trillion over ten years) threw a spanner into the works of that effort, a CBO study of cap-and-trade costs ($175 year in 2020) may have given some oomph to the energy plan which is coming to the floor fo the House. Still, the Senate is going to be a quagmire …
From the non-partisan Tax Foundation:
A new Tax Foundation calculator now shows how much a U.S. cap-and-trade system would cost individual households annually. The Tax Household Cap-and-Trade Burden Calculator is based upon a study released in March, Tax Foundation Working Paper No. 6, “Who Pays for Climate Policy? New Estimates of the Household Burden and Economic Impact of a U.S. Cap-and-Trade System.” The study shows that a cap-and-trade system designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent would place an annual burden of $144.8 billion on American households. The average annual household burden would be $1,218, which would be approximately 2% of the average household income.
I will admit that when I read the headline “China Looks for Big Cuts in Emissions” in the WSJ today, I thought the country had radically shifted policy and was joining the cap-and-trade crowd. My bad. The Reuters hed is more accurate: “China tells rich nations to cut emissions by 40 percent.” (Read the story.) I think it is more likely that the U.S. will eventually slap a carbon emissions tafiff on Chinese goods than it will accede to such demands, not that I think the former is too likely either.