I was at a Center for American Progress conference on the deficit this AM where respected political analyst Charlie Cook talked about the 2010 congressional midterms. He said he thought there was a 1-in-3 to 1-in-2 chance that the Dems could lose the House of Representatives. Among his reasons:
1) Record drop in party ID where a 17 percent D edge has dropped to 5 over the summer.
2) An eight point drop in Obama’s approval rating over same period from 60 to 52.
3) Obama approval among independents has dropped to the low 40s. They are very worried about deficit and hyperactive government. Cook called it “visceral.”
4) Cook notes that more than 80 D House seats are in districts won by McCain in 2008 or Bush in 2004. And 48 are in districts won by both McCain and Bush in 2008 and 2008.
5) Dems could lose “a few” Senate seats, but then are set up for lousy 2012 and 2014 where they have to defend a lot of seats because of their big 200 and 2008 wins.
6) He thinks Obama should have given Bush more credit for rescuing economy at end of 2008.