James Pethokoukis

So-so growth for 2010?

January 29, 2010

That is how IHS Global calls it:

The fourth-quarter GDP surge was produced by a sharp turn in the inventory cycle. Firms still cut inventories in the fourth quarter, but much less severely than in the third. That led to increased production, which boosted GDP. Final sales growth, a better guide to the underlying path of the economy, was much more sedate, at 2.2%, but that was still an improvement on the third quarter’s 1.5% pace.

5.7 percent 4Q GDP growth … then a slowdown

January 29, 2010

Or so says RDQ Economics:

The recovery from the Great Recession firmed in the fourth quarter as real GDP increased at its fastest rate since the third quarter of 2003.  However, also as expected, a sharp slowing in inventory liquidation accounted for 3.4 percentage points (or 60%) of the 5.7% increase in real GDP.  We are particularly impressed by the 13.3% increase in nonresidential investment (upside risk in this area was flagged by yesterday’s durable goods report).

How does the U.S. economic recovery compare to past ones?

January 4, 2010

This handy chart comes courtesy of David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff:

recovery010410

One more reason why 2011 looks bad

December 28, 2009

Interesting analysis from Deutsche Bank, especially the last part which I put in bold (via Econbrowser):

Political impact of surprisingly weak 3Q GDP

December 22, 2009

First, the Commerce Department:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the third quarter of2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the “third” estimatereleased by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent.

Goldman Sachs still believes in the New Normal despite rosier growth forecast

December 15, 2009

Goldman Sachs has boosted its 4Q GDP outlook to 4 percent from 3 percent, yet continues to believe in the gloomy New Normal. Here’s why:

Obama’s bad economic bet may ruin Democrats

October 29, 2009

The anemic third-quarter U.S. GDP report is another indication that President Barack Obama’s economic gamble may yet fail to pay off. And that could be terrible news for Democrats heading into the 2010 midterm elections.

And after the GDP report ….

October 29, 2009

Some cold water via economist Dean Baker of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research:

America’s Potemkin Economy

October 29, 2009

That the US economy has stopped shrinking is certainly good news. But what kind of recovery is this? Strip out Cash for Clunkers and 3Q GDP growth came in at 1.6 percent. Also strip out slowing inventory cuts and GDP would have been just 0.6 percent. Then you have a report that the WH has overestimated the number of jobs created by the stimulus.

How’s the private sector doing?

October 1, 2009

Not so good. As this GDP chart from my pal Donald Marron shows:

marronchart