U.S.-based bankers shouldn’t worry too much about their bonuses. Even though Wall Street remains wildly unpopular and Washington needs more revenue, it’s unlikely U.S. authorities will follow their UK counterparts with a giant windfall tax on banker payouts.
That upcoming election cycle will certainly give American politicians all the impetus they need. A combination of fat payouts of 2009 bonuses in the first quarter and high unemployment will tempt incumbent lawmakers to play the populist card ahead of the 2010 vote.
But past efforts at such radical moves have failed. Congress is again struggling to raise taxes on carried interest, the profit generated by private equity firms and hedge funds. Some Democrats want such performance-based compensation to be considered regular income taxed at a 35 percent rate rather than the current capital-gains treatment it gets with the accompanying 15 percent rate.
The policy logic is plausible. Plus, as Warren Buffett has famously argued, fund managers shouldn’t pay lower tax rates than their office assistants.
But legislation to change carried interest taxation probably isn’t going anywhere. Sure, the House just voted in favor of it. But the bill is DOA in the Senate, which has shown scant interest in direct higher taxes on the wealthy or on capital. For example, it declined to copy one of the House’s preferred methods of paying for healthcare reform — a surtax on the wages and capital gains of top earners.
Moreover, New York Democrat Charles Schumer, a key player on the Senate Finance Committee, is an avowed opponent of higher taxes on alternative asset managers.
What’s more, the United States has already trod this path unsuccessfully. The House voted overwhelmingly to tax 90 percent of AIG bonuses, but the effort went nowhere in the Senate. The Obama administration didn’t push the issue, and polls showed only a bare majority in favor once the issue was fully explained. There were also substantial questions about the constitutionality of a tax targeting a specific group.
U.S. bankers have another six weeks or so to stew before seeing an actual bonus check. But in reality, they should be able to enjoy the holidays.