The great Lawrence Kudlow tells a hard truth, I think, about the economy and the day after tomorrow:
At the end of the 2000 film “The Perfect Storm”, a Gloucester swordfish boat captain (played by George Clooney) finally accepts that his crew won’t escape a monster hurricane in the North Atlantic. “She’s not gonna let us out,” he says as the trapped vessel moves from the eye of the storm and back into the raging winds.
This from the WaPo:
IHS Global Insight, an economic consulting firm, estimates that the stimulus has increased the 2009 gross domestic product by about 1 percent over what it otherwise would have been, with the benefit almost entirely in the second half of the year.
An interesting bit from the WSJ:
Dave Anderson, chief financial officer of Honeywell International Inc., said the stimulus package actually froze business activity at first as firms tried to figure out how they could benefit from the government spending. The $787 billion package “created actually a slowdown in order activity in terms of the flow that we would normally have anticipated,” Mr. Anderson said at a conference sponsored by Morgan Stanley. “We anticipate that that’s going to actually pick up in the second half of the year. I think it’s not unreasonable to see several hundred million dollars of orders.
Allan Meltzer (WSJ) pleads for people to stop comparing this downturn to the Great Depression. It is more like the 1973-75 period, he argues. He also opines that it has been in the Obama administration’s self interest to overstate the severity of the recession so it could hype its own achievements in “saving” the US economy.
Howard Gleckman over at TaxVox does a great job on the new government budget forecasts. This is my favorite bit (bold is mine):
That is the analysis of my pal Rich Karlgaard over at Forbes. (Insert joke about Obama and fahrvergnügen here.) Some sectors of the economy will boom as others muddle through or stay on the mat. Warren Buffett put it best: “When the tide goes out, you discover who’s been swimming naked.” Here’s a bit from the piece: