James Pethokoukis

Maybe not a jobless recovery?

November 13, 2009

Some interesting analyst from the St. Louis Fed:

What was unique about the jobless recoveries, say DiCecio and Gascon, is that the preceding recessions were structural ones. 75% of jobs lost in the 1990-91 recession and 50% of the losses in the ’01 recession were suffered by the manufacturing sector. That number is down to 25% during this recession. The assumption here is that it’s easier for service workers to find jobs in the growing service economy than for former manufacturing workers to make the shift into the service sector. And that makes sense to me.

Sinking Dem polls force Stimulus 2.0

November 13, 2009

Get ready for Stimulus 2.0 — Extreme Jobs Edition. Yes, the U.S. labor market is slowly healing. The declining number of monthly job losses and weekly initial unemployment claims show that. Yet President Obama still felt the need to announce a ‘jobs summit’ at the White House next month.

Is Washington making unemployment worse?

November 11, 2009

Yes, says U. of C. prof Casey Mulligan:

Labor market distortions have gotten progressively worse during this recession. The federal minimum wage, for example, was increased once shortly before the recession began, a second time in the summer of 2008, and yet again this summer. The housing collapse has also had multiple harmful effects, such as impeding families who might want to move out of some of the hardest-hit regions toward areas where the economy is doing better.

12 reasons unemployment is going to (at least) 12 percent

November 11, 2009

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate.  I think you would also be talking about  the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.

Geithner, the dollar and the deficit

November 11, 2009

First, Geithner on the dollar and deficits:

“I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” Geithner said in a meeting with Japanese reporters at the U.S. embassy.  “We bear a special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policies in the United States that will sustain confidence … in investors around the world that as growth recovers and growth strengthens that we’re going to bring our fiscal position back to a sustainable balance,” he said.

Remember the Misery Index?

November 9, 2009

I am not sure Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ does: “It’s hard to get inflation when unemployment is so high.”

Unemployment and presidential disapproval ratings

November 6, 2009

Some interesting charts (via TNR) looking at the linkage between unemployment and disapproval ratings:

America’s jobless recovery

November 6, 2009

Here are a few opinions about the jump in the unemployment rate that caught my eye:

A few more thoughts on the shocking 10.2 percent unemployment rate

November 6, 2009

Some quick hits:

1) Remember in the early 1980s 7 straight quarters of avg. GDP growth of roughly 7% (!) lowered jobless rate by only 2.5 percentage points. Hard to see economy booming like that between now and Election Day 2010.

The massacre of small business

November 6, 2009

Good point from David Goldman:

The big issue in the US economy is the massacre of small business. That’s why the household survey shows that 558,000 Americans “became unemployed” during October, while the establishment survey of payrolls shows a decline of only 190,000 jobs. The establishment data, which are collected from larger businesses, are more reliable; the household survey is based on telephone interviews with randomly-selected households. But the numbers are so large as to make clear that small businesses are shutting down.