James Pethokoukis

Noam Scheiber: Be happy with 8 percent unemployment in 2012, America

October 7, 2009

Over at his TNR blog, Noam Scheiber wonders what unemployment will be when Obama runs for reelection, noting that IHS Global Insight predicts it will be 8.1 percent:

Is America stuck with high unemployment?

October 5, 2009

Is there a “new normal” for the American labor market? Are the days of an unemployment rate of just 4 to 5 percent a thing of the past?

When the US labor market will begin to recover

October 5, 2009

Ed Yardeni has been crunching the numbers:

Based on the previous two cycles, employment might recover within the next 11-21 months after June, or between May 2010 and March 2011! It fell 289,000 during the 11 months following the recession trough of March 1991 and 1.08mn during the 21 months following the November 2001 trough. So far, it is down 768,000 from June through September. A similar analysis suggests that the unemployment rate should peak 15-19 months after June, or sometime between September 2010 and January 2011!

Is the US labor market broken?

October 2, 2009

US unemployment has been far worse than economists would have expected given the magnitude of GDP decline. Has something structurally changed with the American labor market? An interesting angle on this from Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein of First Trust Advisers:

Is the US economy suffering from hysteresis?

September 25, 2009

That is, has the economy snapped in such a way that it can’t bounce back to its previous form? This might be true in the labor market. Mark Thoma takes a shot at the issue:

A case for long-term high unemployment in America

September 11, 2009

A fantastic article by Joshua Cooper Ramo looking at whether the US is doomed to years of high unemployment. Read the whole thing, but this a key bit:

More on the weak U.S. labor market

September 8, 2009

This analysis from Ed Yardeni:

Based on the previous two cycles, the unemployment rate should peak in 15-19 months, or sometime between September 2010 and January 2011! When might employment recover? The previous two experiences suggest this might occur within the next 11-21 months after June, or between May 2010 and March 2011.

Why economic insecurity isn’t helping Democrats

September 8, 2009

Some Democrats thought they would have a much easier time pushing through changes in healthcare, trade and labor policy thanks to the recession. The theory was that economic insecurity would nudge people toward the warm embrace of government.  Obviously that does not seem to be happening. Indeed, past polls showed that economic downturns actually make people more skeptical of Big Government. Apparently, that is also true of Big Labor. This from a recent Gallup poll:

America’s battered labor market

September 8, 2009

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff analyzes thusly:

1) Jobless claims stuck at 570k — basically in line with a sustained 200k-300k payroll losses.

Kudlow: Obamanomics and the jobless recovery

September 7, 2009

The great Lawrence Kudlow tells a hard truth, I think, about the economy and the day after tomorrow: