Over at NRO, Duncan Currie gives it his best shot:
Despite being more efficient than an ordinary sales tax, a VAT carries significant administrative costs, and piling it on top of the present U.S. tax structure would be a mistake. But using the VAT to eliminate a sizable amount of distortionary U.S. income taxes would yield a far more growth-friendly system than the one we have today. Over the long run, America must reorient its economy away from consumption and toward investment while boosting its dangerously low savings rate. A VAT is certainly not the only way to promote those objectives, but it should at least be part of the conversation.
In the piece, Currie more or less outlines a proposal similar to what Gov. Mitch Daniels suggest a month or so ago: Lower existing taxes rates and add a VAT. I don’t believe he means for this to be a tax increase. Higher government revenue would come from higher economic growth. Of course, many liberals see a VAT as an efficient way to dramatically raise taxes. Roger Altman, perhaps the replacement for Larry Summers in the White House, has recommended a $500 billion VAT.
In theory, I don’t have a problem with the Currie-Daniels approach, though I would prefer to have the income tax repealed. I also don’t think it would automatically lead to higher and VAT taxes and higher and higher spending — especially not after reading this piece. As Currie notes:
Moreover, while the VAT can lead to higher spending, it does not inevitably have that effect. Consider what happened in Canada, where the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney implemented a federal VAT in 1991. Since then, as economists William Gale and Benjamin Harris of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center point out, “the size of the Canadian federal government has shrunk significantly.” The VAT rate started at 7 percent, but it has fallen to 5 percent under the Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, which has also slashed corporate taxes.
In New Zealand, it was a neoliberal Labour government that embraced the controversial consumption tax. During the mid-1980s, Prime Minister David Lange and his finance chief, Roger Douglas, spearheaded a radical program of fiscal consolidation that included massive income-tax reductions, deep spending cuts, ambitious deregulation, and a 10 percent VAT.