I don’t see any real energy price break in the offing. Libya won’t stabilize very soon, and its oil output won’t reach former levels for some time. Plus, other destabilizing factors (Syria and Iran) are coming more and more into play too.

The Fed is strategically arrogant and bone-headed, so why should we expect common sense and wisdom now? I’d say its policies are going to be even more inflationary going forward. So oil is going to soon resume its climb, as will gold.

I think oil’s price is only taking a brief respite. The economies of the developed world are in desperately serious trouble on a strategic basis. We’ve mostly done it to ourselves. No quick fixes now. Just have to ride it out and hope the Fed and ECB et al play less stupid rather than more stupid.