Sept 11 (Reuters) – Asia’s economic miracle may be waning
just as the foundations for an eventual resurgence in the U.S.
are being laid.
Asia, China in particular, may be bumping up against the
limits of a capital-intensive growth model predicated on cheap
labor. To counteract this, countries like China may have to
adapt legal, political and even academic practices which could
up-end existing power relationships.
At the same time, technology, geology and new manufacturing
techniques may in combination give U.S. growth an energy and
“To pose the question about the Asian miracle is not to
doubt China’s and Asia’s economic potential and significance,
but to throw down the gauntlet to the conventional thinking that
extrapolates Asia’s past economic performance into the
indefinite future, and assumes that the competitive challenge
from the U.S. and other Western countries and companies is now a
spent force,” George Magnus, an economic consultant to UBS
writes Monday in a note to clients titled “Asia: is the miracle
To be sure, Asian growth rates won’t dip below those of the
U.S., other than under the most extraordinary scenarios. There
is, however, real potential for rates in China, India and
elsewhere to disappoint the sorts of forecasts now common, and
for the U.S. to stage a meaningful, and surprising, rally.