The battle between the banks and nation states is shaping up as something that lies between a phony war and a rout.
from Davos Notebook:
Was letting Lehman go down the biggest mistake of the crisis? Many, including George Soros in the Financial Times, have argued that letting Lehman go down sowed panic to markets, consumers and businesses.
Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, who pretty much called it at last year’s Davos, when consensus was for no recession in the “real” economy and decoupling of emerging markets, is gloomy again. Speaking with him this morning after he did an interview with Reuters on Davos Today, Roach said that there was a real threat of protectionism as politicians come under pressure from rising unemployment. The U.S. and China relationship will be key, he said.