Raw Japan
Slices of Japanese business, politics and life
from MacroScope:
United Korea: bigger than Japan?
North Korea, one of former President George Bush's "axis of evil" countries and one of the few remaining Stalinist states, deserves to be re-evaluated given the prospect of a power succession and the changing economic landscape in the region, according to Goldman Sachs.
Apart from the robust military establishment (absorbing at least 20-30% of GDP vs 3% of GDP in South Korea), Goldman says North Korea has large untapped potential, including rich human capital, abundant mineral resources (valued at around 140 times 2008 GDP) and significant room for productivity gains.
"We project that the GDP of a united Korea in dollar terms could exceed that of France, Germany and possibly Japan in 30-40 years, should the growth potential of North Korea, notably its rich mineral wealth, be realised," the bank's economist Goohoon Kwon says in a paper.
"This projection would put the size of a united Korea in 2050 firmly on a par with, or in excess of, that of most G7 countries, except for the U.S.
from Summit Notebook:
Blackrock sees opportunities in shrinking Japan
Japan's population has peaked and all the projections have it sliding sharply in coming decades, raising questions about investment opportunities when emerging markets, in particular, offer much more obvious growth opportunities.
By 2055 government researchers expect Japan's population to slide 30 percent to below 90 million from around 128 million with mushrooming numbers of retirees to be supported by a dwindling workforce.
from Summit Notebook:
Nomura: Lehman taking shape
Nomura's takeover of Lehman Brothers' European and Asia businesses is yielding results, and concerns the Japanese bank will struggle to marry cultures is misplaced, according to the man who drove the deal.
"It's a very successful start and we've been happy with what we've got," Takumi Shibata, chief operating officer for Nomura, told the Reuters Japan Investment Summit in Tokyo.
from Summit Notebook:
Expect action in Japanese M&A
After falling off a cliff at the start of this year as the global financial crisis gripped, mergers and acquisitions by Japanese companies overseas are likely to pick up again in the second half of this year, according to boutique Japanese M&A advisory firm Recof Corp.
There won't be a flood of deals, Recof President Hikari Imai says, but the ones there are, are likely to be chunky as Japanese companies expand their frontiers beyond domestic markets where growth prospects are limited.
Asia banks eye gaps on the Western front
Mike Smith, the chief executive of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, is looking to fill some gaps.
As global banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland Plc and Citigroup Inc reel from losses on toxic investments and take massive government bailouts, Smith reckons he may be able to steal some business in Asia.
-
Resident Raw Japan Expert
-
