Raw Japan

from Global News Journal:

Interview with North Korea border crosser Robert Park

 (Photographs by Lee Jae-won)

North Korea said on Tuesday it had  detained a U.S. citizen who entered its territory, apparently confirming a report that an American activist crossed into the state to raise awareness about Pyongyang's human rights abuses.   Robert Park, 28, walked over the frozen Tumen river from China and into the North last Friday, other activists said. The Korean-American told Reuters ahead of the crossing that it was his duty as a Christian to make the journey and that he was carrying a letter calling on North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to step down.

Park had an exclusive interview with Reuters last week before starting on his journey. The following are excerpts from the conversation. He requested that the comments be held until he was in North Korea.  

Reuters: Why are you planning to go into North Korea?

Robert Park: The North Korean human rights crisis by murder rate is the worst in the world. An estimated 1,000 people a day die by starvation and starvation is a murder case. North Korea has been sent more food aid than any nation in the world but the food has not gone to the people who need it. So this is murder.

But not only that, there are concentration camps in North Korea that are of the same brutality as in Nazi Germany.

from MacroScope:

United Korea: bigger than Japan?

North Korea, one of former President George Bush's "axis of evil" countries and one of the few remaining Stalinist states, deserves to be re-evaluated given the prospect of a power succession and the changing economic landscape in the region, according to Goldman Sachs.

Apart from the robust military establishment (absorbing at least 20-30% of GDP vs 3% of GDP in South Korea),  Goldman says North Korea has large untapped potential, including rich human capital, abundant mineral resources (valued at around 140 times 2008 GDP) and significant room for productivity gains.

"We project that the GDP of a united Korea in dollar terms could exceed that of France, Germany and possibly Japan in 30-40 years, should the growth potential of North Korea, notably its rich mineral wealth, be realised," the bank's economist Goohoon Kwon says in a paper.

"This projection would put the size of a united Korea in 2050 firmly on a par with, or in excess of, that of most G7 countries, except for the U.S.

Readers of Global Investing may be aware that there are investors who are already looking at North Korea's potential.

Chosun Fund, for instance, targets North Korea's extractive industries and energy sector.

Clinton rescue casts spotlight on Japan families’ plight

The tearful homecoming of two U.S. journalists released from a North Korean jail during a lightning visit by former U.S. President Bill Clinton this week left relatives of Japanese abducted by Pyongyang’s agents dissatisfied with their own government’s efforts.

“Why is it that Japan has been taking so long to bring them back, while the United States negotiated a release that quick?” Kyodo news agency quoted Kayoko Arimoto, the mother of a missing abductee as saying this week.

In a surprise move similar to Clinton’s visit, then Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi swooped into Pyongyang in 2002 for a meeting with leader Kim Jong-il, a tactic that netted him a partial success: the return of five of 13 Japanese citizens North Korea admitted to having kidnapped to help train its spies. Pyongyang said the others were dead. But relatives of the eight plus a further four Japan says were also abducted, have refused to give up hope.

Successive prime ministers have vowed to bring the abductees home and Prime Minister Taro Aso visited the site where a 13-year-old girl was abducted in 1977 before kicking off his election campaign in the region this month. The main opposition Democratic Party has said it will also insist on progress on the abductions before it will provide North Korea with aid, if it takes power this month.

Though decades have passed since the kidnappings, suggesting that the missing victims may not have survived their ordeal in North Korea has become taboo.

One victim’s family is suing television commentator Soichiro Tahara for 10 million yen ($100,000) for saying he thought the abductees were dead. A television ethics watchdog has also decided to look into his comments, Kyodo news agency said on Friday.

Japan’s North Korea refugee risk

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il‘s reported annointing of his youngest son, offspring of a Japan-born dancer, as heir highlights a dark chapter in Japan’s history and a possible refugee headache if the regime collapses.

Apparent heir Kim Jong-un is said by South Korean media to be a son of Ko Young-hee, one of about 100,000 Koreans who returned to the North from Japan in the 1960s hoping to find a workers’ paradise. Many were brought to Japan as forced labour before World War Two and faced discrimination after the war. 

No matter who succeeds the 67-year-old Kim, no one knows if the succession will go smoothly or whether the reclusive communist state will fall into chaos, sending streams of refugees to China, South Korea, Russia and Japan.

So here is the question:  Is Japan ready in case North Korea collapses for reasons such as a power struggle as it choses Kim Jong-il’s successor or any rise of military confrontation in the future?

Analaysts said most refugees are likely to go to China and the South, but add that repatriated Koreans and their families may wish to come to Japan, a country less than welcoming to refugees in general and uncomfortable with North Koreans in particular.

“If they say they want to come back, we cannot reject them just because of their nationality from a humanitarian viewpoint,” Masao Okonogi, a Korean expert at Tokyo’s Keio University told me.  “It has the potential to become a big social issue.”

Tokyo’s ties with Pyongyang have long been rocky for reasons ranging from Japan’s 1910-1945 colonisation of Korea to North Korea’s abductions of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s.  Japan also sees itself as a potential victim of any attack by nearby North Korea.

Pyongyang back in black?

North Korea hasn’t yet rejoined the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, but weekend comments from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the nation was mulling the possibility were replayed by Japanese media with the same gusto they gave reports on Japan qualifying for the 2010 World Cup.

Pyongyang, an initial member of President George Bush’s “axis of evil” in 2002, was removed from the U.S. blacklist last October, after agreeing to a series of nuclear site verification measures.

“Obviously, they were taken off the list for a purpose, and that purpose is being thwarted by their actions,” Clinton said.

Those actions include a nuclear test on May 25 and a raft of missile launches, all of which is expected to produce a new U.N. Security Council resolution as early as this week.

Japan’s Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone met with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi over the weekend in Tokyo and called for strong U.N. action to broaden measures imposed after the first nuclear test in 2006.

But just how strong is an issue for Beijing, Pyongyang’s traditional ally and biggest trading partner, which is worried that instability — financial or otherwise – in the North may spill over if measures are too stringent.

Who’s Roos?

Roos who?

That was pretty much the reaction in Japan when U.S. President Barack Obama tapped California lawyer and campaign donor John Roos as ambassador to Tokyo.

News of the choice sent Japanese diplomats and U.S.-Japan watchers scrambling for information about Roos, whom one U.S. expert described to me in a hurried email as a “Silicon valley mover and shaker, not with any link to Japan, though clearly to Obama”.

The pick risked sending a sign that a wary Tokyo would interpret as more evidence of “Japan passing”, a phenomenon much feared in Japan, in which Washington is seen cosying up to Beijing at the expense of its closest Asian ally.

Many Japanese media had expected Obama to select Harvard professor Joseph Nye, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense well known in Japan for his work on the alliance, though reports that his nomination was a done deal had been dodgy for a while.

“His ability is unknown,” the Mainichi newspaper quoted a foreign ministry official as saying of Roos, while expressing worries about the nomination at a time when North Asia tensions are rising in the wake of a North Korean nuclear test.

The paper also took note of a possible slight in that  Obama introduced his nominee for envoy to China to White House media but unveiled Roos’ nomination in a statement.

North Korea’s test of wills

Japan, perhaps the most nervous neighbor of unpredictable North Korea, is also the least able to overtly make its fears felt, after this week’s nuclear test.

Analysts point out the combination of Tokyo’s history of antagonism with the North and the fact that Pyongyang boasts missiles that could hit almost anywhere in Japan pose particular risks for the world’s second largest economy.

Sanctions have already wiped out much of Tokyo’s bilateral trade with Pyongyang, leaving little space for further punitive economic measures.

Developing a pre-emptive strike capability to enable destruction of enemy missiles on the launch pad is an option that some ruling party lawmakers advocate. Prime ministers, including incumbent Taro Aso, have said a first strike would be in line with Japan’s pacifist constitution, if there were no other options.

But even that idea divides lawmakers in the conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), with a party panel pushing for it to be included in a national defence plan, while Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada has expressed doubts and called for calm.

A general election many expect in August could see the main opposition Democratic Party take power, possibly in coalition with smaller parties opposed to any Japanese military action overseas, further reducing the chances of a drastic change in security policy.

Cherry blossoms come rain, shine or rocket launch

Nothing can get in the way of a cherry blossom party in Japan, not even North Korea’s test-launch of a rocket.

A couple weeks ago I blogged about Japan’s cherry blossom season and how the sakura-crazy nation was preparing to pop open the sake and party.

The blossoms were in full bloom in Tokyo about a week ago – right around the time North Korea planned a rocket launch over Japan.

The launch dominated the headlines and kept people on edge, but it did not get between people and their party plans, including those of Japan’s military.

The army’s Camp Asaka boasts about 2,000 cherry trees and attracts around 7,000 visitors to its annual sakura-viewing event.

But this year’s festivities on April 4 were in danger of being cancelled after a anti-missile battery was stationed there to intercept any debris that may fall towards Japanese territory.

North Korean golf shot?

An anonymous Japanese official has raised eyebrows with off-the-cuff comments as the country prepares for an expected rocket launch by neighbouring North Korea.

First, the official questioned whether Japan could really shoot down a stray rocket if its territory was threatened, next he — well, most likely ‘he’ — compared the looming launch to a wayward golf ball that would prompt the shout of “Fore!”, the traditional warning to watch out on the golf course.

A missile “would be to high and would not be visible, so from the people’s perspective, they won’t know what is happening. It would be neat if we could see it,” the Asahi newspaper quoted the official as saying.

“If it flies somewhere, one would feel like shouting ‘Fore’,” he added.

North Korea says the launch, planned for April 4-8, is for the peaceful purpose of sending a satellite into orbit, but the United States, South Korea and Japan see it as a disguised test of the Taepodong-2 missile. But Japan’s military has deployed its missile defences in case debris from the rocket threatens to fall on its territory.

Last week, the same unidentified official was quoted by Japanese media as questioning how effective such preparations would be, telling Japanese media: “You cannot shoot down a pistol bullet with a pistol.”

Japan on edge as North Korean rocket launch date nears

The Japanese and U.S. military are deploying land and sea-based missile interceptors and ships with high-tech radar, Japanese local authorities are holding drills and a Tokyo resident is dreaming of missiles as the date nears for a rocket launch by Japan’s secretive neighbour North Korea.

Pyongyang has said the launch planned for April 4-8 is for the peaceful purpose of sending a satellite into orbit, but the United States, South Korea and Japan see it as a disguised test of a Taepodong-2 missile that in theory could reach Alaska or Hawaii.

In an unprededented step, Japan on Friday authorised its military to shoot down any rocket or debris that threatens to fall on its territory, and is deploying ship-based Standard Missile-3 interceptors and land-based Patriot Advance Capability-3 interceptors to be ready to fire if need be.

Government officials have said there is no reason for the public to panic, saying dangerous debris is highly unlikely to hit Japan and that Tokyo is doing its best to be ready just in case. But they acknowledge that there are no guarantees.

Japan, which accelerated the build-up of its anti-missile defences after North Korea blasted a missile over the country in 1998, would have just 10 minutes notice if a missile or debris threaten its territory.

“The government has done what it can up to now to build a missile defence system,” Japanese Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada said in parliament on Monday.

“We can’t say for sure how solid and perfect the technology is since there are various possibilities, but we want to carry out what we have been doing so far while keeping every possibility in mind.”