By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

China’s real estate sector is hanging in the balance, and a price correction could knock the wind out of the economy. Buyers and sellers are both waiting for the next shoe to drop, judging by abysmal sales over the New Year holiday, and fears abound of a supply glut. But China’s problem isn’t that it has too many homes – just too many expensive ones in the wrong places.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

China’s boys will worry the world. Last year in the world’s most populous nation 118 boys were born for every 100 girls. That’s more than the 105 ratio nature intended, and adds to a current surplus of 34 million potentially unattachable males. If the current birth rate were to stick, a 1.3 billion population could have 100 million of what Chinese refer to as “broken branches”.

By John Foley

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Royal Bank of Scotland’s aircraft leasing arm has flown to a better place: Japan. The UK bank’s $7.3 billion deal to sell the division, which includes 206 planes, to Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group will free up vital capital at a good price. For the buyer, which now becomes the world’s number three leaser of planes, it should provide a much needed lift to returns.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

China has somehow misplaced $100 billion. That’s how much is unaccounted for in the country’s $3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves, which fell for the first time in a decade over the last quarter. If that’s hot money leaving the country, so be it. But genuine capital flight would be another story.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

China has a sanctions dilemma. The biggest buyer of Iranian oil imported about 600,000 barrels a day in November, a third of total output. As the United States enacts new sanctions on the Middle Eastern state, and refiners in Europe pull back in anticipation of further curbs, China can choose to flout or follow. Expect it to fudge.

Imagine China chooses all-out disobedience. That would be in keeping with a policy of non-intervention in foreign countries’ domestic affairs. If China just bought, it could take up a big share of the 450,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil which sanction-imposing Europe is no longer taking. It would probably get a cut price – discounts of $30 a barrel are possible – from the desperate seller.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own

Nomura has lost its top banker, and with him its chances of becoming a globally relevant investment bank. Jesse Bhattal, who helped broker the Japanese group’s purchase of Lehman Brothers’ Asian and European businesses, has retired less than a year after being promoted to president of the wholesale bank – essentially everything outside Japan. At best, Nomura will muddle through. At worst, this marks the beginning of a slow retreat.

Bhattal would most likely have left the bank in April, according to people familiar with the situation. That he didn’t last that long suggests the relationship had become frayed. Bhattal had pushed hard to make Nomura leaner, including a $1.2 billion programme of cost cuts announced in November, after Nomura reported its worst quarterly loss since 2009.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

If the chips are down, try Macau. China’s tiny, casino-filled enclave is one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, thanks to the punters who cross from the mainland, where gambling is banned. Macau will feel an economic slowdown, but if bad habits go uncurbed, 2012 should still be a pretty good year.

By John Foley
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

China’s M&A stars will align in 2012. If asset prices fall, and bank credit remains tight, the Year of the Dragon will give state-owned companies a chance to play to their two strengths: cheap financing and a mandate to acquire.