Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Sep 1, 2015

Oil market displays its irrational side: Kemp

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – U.S. crude prices jumped more
than 27 percent in three trading days between Thursday and
Monday, which should convince even the most die-hard believers
the oil futures market is neither efficient nor rational.

The rally has left traders, analysts and journalists
struggling to make sense of the sudden change in direction after
prices had fallen steadily for two months, hitting their lowest
level since 2009.

Sep 1, 2015

Oil market displays its irrational side: Kemp

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – U.S. crude prices jumped more
than 27 percent in three trading days between Thursday and
Monday, which should convince even the most die-hard believers
the oil futures market is neither efficient nor rational.

The rally has left traders, analysts and journalists
struggling to make sense of the sudden change in direction after
prices had fallen steadily for two months, hitting their lowest
level since 2009.

Aug 28, 2015

Oil prices surge in short-covering rally: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) – Front-month Brent crude futures
surged more than 10 percent higher yesterday, one of the largest
daily percentage movements on record, as traders raced to cover
short positions (link.reuters.com/teh55w).

U.S. crude futures rose almost as much, with the October
contract ending the day up by more than 9 percent.

Aug 27, 2015

Efficiency mandates to cap recovery in oil demand: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 27 (Reuters) – Lower prices should help
stimulate oil consumption in advanced economies, restoring some
of the demand lost over the last decade, as the cost of crude
soared from less than $50 to more than $100 per barrel.

In the late 1980s and through the 1990s, strong growth in
demand played a crucial role in rebalancing the market after the
slump caused by the two oil shocks in the 1970s.

Aug 25, 2015

Lessons from the oil market’s “lost decade”: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies
are counting on strong growth in demand coupled with slower
growth in non-OPEC supply to rebalance the oil market in 2016.

But the experience of the “lost decade” after prices slumped
in 1986 suggests rebalancing could take longer than some OPEC
members and market analysts expect.

Aug 24, 2015

Oil market loses faith in Saudi oil strategy: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s strategy for
rebalancing the oil market through a period of lower prices
shows few signs of working so far – with rival producers
claiming they will raise output even as prices slide to new
lows.

Saudi policymakers insist the kingdom will maintain its
market share and let low prices take care of the surplus by
forcing cuts from higher cost producers and stimulating fuel
demand.

Aug 20, 2015

US oil imports rise as contango encourages storage: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) – U.S. crude imports topped 8
million barrels per day (bpd) last week for only the second time
this year, spurring an unexpected rise in stockpiles and sending
U.S. oil prices down to a fresh post-crisis low.

The United States imported 56.3 million barrels of crude in
the week ending Aug. 14, up from 53.0 million barrels the week
before, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Aug 18, 2015

Hedge funds aggressively bearish towards U.S. crude: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 18 (Reuters) – A relatively small group of hedge
fund managers has placed a record bet on U.S. oil prices
declining further in the months ahead.

Hedge funds and other money managers had accumulated gross
short futures and options positions totalling 163 million
barrels in the main NYMEX light sweet crude contract by Aug. 11,
according to data released by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission.

Aug 17, 2015

What might prompt a short-covering rally in U.S. oil price? Kemp

LONDON, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Hedge funds remained unusually
bearish on U.S. oil prices last week even as the cost of WTI
tumbled towards the lowest level since 2009.

Hedge funds and other money managers held short positions in
WTI-linked futures and options equivalent to more than 193
million barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission.

Aug 13, 2015

Oil market adjustment is about more than just shale: Kemp

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) – U.S. shale oil production
amounted to just 5 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of
2014, less than 6 percent of world production and consumption.

Despite the shale sector’s small market share, it has
disrupted the entire oil industry because it emerged in the
middle of the cost curve and has accounted for more than half of
the increase in global supplies since 2010.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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