Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Jan 7, 2015

U.S. oil production will be falling by end of 2015: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) – Unless prices recover, U.S. oil
production will start falling before the end of 2015 as new
drilling is insufficient to replace declining output from wells
completed in 2013 and 2014.

Future production depends on the rate of decline from
existing wells (known as the decline curve) and the average age
of old oil wells as well as the number of new ones drilled and
their productivity.

Jan 6, 2015

China’s Xi proves keen student of U.S. power: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Xi Jinping is China’s first
U.S.-style president.

Many commentators have noted Xi is the most powerful leader
since Deng Xiaoping and even Mao Zedong. But a better comparison
might be with the style and powers of the American president.

He wields enormous personal power, in contrast to the more
collective leadership style of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, has
assumed an unprecedented profile abroad as the country’s chief
diplomat and has been heavily promoted at home as the
responsible face of the party and the government.

Jan 5, 2015

Catching a falling knife in the oil market: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters) – “Don’t try to catch a falling
knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the
trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff.

Yet big moves also create the greatest potential for the
mispricing of financial assets and commodities, which is what
makes them attractive to contrarians and specialists.

Dec 30, 2014

Oil prices and Saudi diplomacy: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia sets oil market policy purely on an economic basis, no less and no more, the kingdom’s oil minister reiterated in a broad-ranging interview with the newspaper Al-Hayat.

Ali al-Naimi rejected “conspiracy theories” that Saudi Arabia was using oil as a diplomatic weapon against Iran, Russia or any other country, calling such beliefs a misunderstanding, tendentious and a fantasy without foundation.

Dec 22, 2014

Oil prices and Saudi diplomacy

LONDON (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia sets oil market policy purely on an economic basis, no less and no more, the kingdom’s oil minister reiterated in a broad-ranging interview with the newspaper Al-Hayat.

Ali al-Naimi rejected “conspiracy theories” that Saudi Arabia was using oil as a diplomatic weapon against Iran, Russia or any other country, calling such beliefs a misunderstanding, tendentious and a fantasy without foundation.

Dec 22, 2014

Oil prices and Saudi diplomacy: Kemp

LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia sets oil market
policy purely on an economic basis, no less and no more, the
kingdom’s oil minister reiterated in a broad-ranging interview
with the newspaper Al-Hayat.

Ali al-Naimi rejected “conspiracy theories” that Saudi
Arabia was using oil as a diplomatic weapon against Iran, Russia
or any other country, calling such beliefs a misunderstanding,
tendentious and a fantasy without foundation.

Dec 18, 2014

Clausewitz and oil prices: Kemp

LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) – “If we consider the actual basis
of this (intelligence), how unreliable and transient it is, we
soon realise that war is a flimsy structure that can easily
collapse and bury us in its ruins.”

German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz was writing
about the role of intelligence in warfare, but his insight about
unreliable information is equally applicable to traders,
investors and business leaders trying to understand whether oil
prices have fallen far enough or have further to drop.

Dec 16, 2014

Oil prices are now unsustainably low: Kemp

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) – Oil prices have now fallen to an
unsustainable low level. Futures contracts for Brent and WTI
have fallen below $60 and $55 per barrel respectively but many
crude producers are receiving much lower prices.

Plains Marketing, for example, is now offering just $39.69
per barrel for Williston Basin Sweet crude and less than $50 for
a wide range of other U.S. crude oils, according to its latest
pricing bulletin, published on December 15.

Dec 15, 2014

Past oil price slumps show U.S. drillers’ inertia: Kemp

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) – The most important characteristic
of the U.S. oil industry is inertia – or to put it another way,
drilling and production respond sluggishly even to a large
change in prices.

Since 1974, there have been four episodes in which oil
prices declined sharply over a relatively short time (ignoring
the brief price spike and equally rapid reversal in 1990
associated with preparations for the first war between the
United States and Iraq).

Dec 12, 2014

Why oil prices are so unstable: Kemp

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) – The inherently cyclical nature of
some commodity prices has fascinated economists since the late
19th century but still continues to catch both investors and
producers unprepared.

Regular and apparently self-sustaining price cycles were
first observed in the price of hogs in the United States and
Germany in the final quarter of the 19th and first quarter of
the 20th centuries.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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