Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Jan 29, 2015

U.S. crude oil stocks return to 1930s crisis levels: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) – U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
last week hit their highest level since 1931 – when the opening
of giant oil fields in the United States coincided with the
Great Depression to create an enormous glut and sent prices
tumbling to just 13 cents per barrel.

Commercial crude stocks at refineries and tank farms across
the country rose to almost 407 million barrels on Jan 23, up
from 398 million the week before, according to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) (

Jan 28, 2015

California gasoline sales point to growing oil demand: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Motorists in California purchased
more gasoline in October 2014 than any corresponding month since
2007, according to state tax records, confirming the renewed
growth in U.S. fuel demand.

State gasoline consumption was 2.3 percent higher than in
the same month in 2013 and 4.1 percent higher than in 2012,
according to the California Board of Equalization, which
collects motor vehicle fuel tax in the state.

Jan 27, 2015

Factors that will drive U.S. oil production in 2015: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) – Rig counts are a highly imperfect
guide to future oil production but they are one of the few
readily available statistics on oilfield activity so it is
unwise to dismiss their importance entirely.

The sharp drop in crude oil prices since June 2014 and
associated fall in rig counts published by state regulators and
service companies such as Baker Hughes has sparked a lively
debate about the short-term outlook for U.S. oil production.

Jan 26, 2015

North Dakota oil rigs drop points to U.S. output decline after May: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – The decline in oil drilling that has occurred so far across the United States is probably enough to ensure U.S. production peaks by April or May, though that might not be evident until June or July given delays in publishing production records.

If the number of active rigs continues to decline in the next few weeks, which seems likely, it is reasonably likely U.S. oil production will be falling by June or July 2015.

Jan 22, 2015

U.S. drivers put oil market on road to recovery: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – U.S. gasoline demand is
increasing as motorists opt for bigger vehicles and drive more,
encouraged by the sharp drop in fuel prices and an improving
employment market.

Increased fuel consumption in the United States and other
advanced economies is one way lower oil prices will rebalance
the market. Coupled with falling output from the major U.S.
shale plays, increasing demand will gradually eliminate excess
supply over the course of 2015 and 2016.

Jan 21, 2015

Oil producers’ under-appreciated role in U.S. economy: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) – The eight states at the heart of
the American shale oil revolution all grew faster than the U.S.
national average over the last decade, according to the U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), underscoring the importance
of oil production to the U.S. economy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to private
industry grew at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 1.8 percent
between 2002 and 2013 for the nation as a whole, after allowing
for inflation.

Jan 21, 2015

Lower oil prices will blunt drive for fuel efficiency: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – For a decade, high and rising
prices have created a strong incentive to use oil-derived fuels
more sparingly.

By the end of 2012, efficiency improvements, substitution,
and changes in behaviour had cut oil consumption in the advanced
economies by 8 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with the
pre-2005 trend, according to James Hamilton at the University of
California (“The changing face of world oil markets” July 2014).

Jan 20, 2015

Falling oil investment will hit U.S. economy: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – If capital and workers could move
instantly and without friction between industries, the plunge in
oil prices would be unambiguously positive for the U.S. economy
in the short term as well as the longer one.

Despite the growth in shale production, the United States is
still a net importer of around 5 million barrels per day of
crude and refined products, according to the Energy Information

Jan 14, 2015

Decline curves and the outlook for U.S. shale plays: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – Decline curves are fundamental to
understanding the outlook for U.S. shale oil production over the
next two years.

Each well has its own unique production profile and there
can be enormous variation between wells in adjacent spacing
units let alone in different counties, plays and states.

Jan 14, 2015

EIA forecasts temporary peak in US oil output in May: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – U.S. crude production is set to
rise by another 300,000 barrels per day to a temporary peak in
May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
before declining over the summer.

The forecast is contained in the latest edition of the EIA’s
closely watched Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on
Tuesday (

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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