Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
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Jul 7, 2014

Improving the odds: why shale really is revolutionary: Kemp

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) – Exploring for oil and gas is like
gambling: it’s all about playing probabilities, and using
technology and skill to improve the odds.

Until a well is bored into the ground – possibly thousands
of feet below the surface, at a cost of millions or even tens of
millions of dollars – it is impossible to know for sure whether
it will find hydrocarbons in commercially producible quantities.

Jul 2, 2014

Political risk is evident everywhere except the markets: Kemp

LONDON, July 2 (Reuters) – “Geopolitical risk” turns out to
have surprisingly little impact on the valuation of oil and most
financial assets.

Since the beginning of 2011, revolutions and
counter-revolutions have rocked the Arab world, sanctions have
slashed oil exports from Iran, and unrest has cut production in
South Sudan and Nigeria, and none of these events has had any
significant impact on oil prices.

Jun 30, 2014

Why secular stagnation is wrong: Kemp

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) – “Equality of opportunity as we
have known it no longer exists,” Franklin Delano Roosevelt
warned gloomily in September 1932. “Our industrial plant is
built; the problem just now is whether under existing conditions
it is not overbuilt.”

In a campaign speech to the Commonwealth Club of San
Francisco, the Democratic Party’s nominee for president of the
United States told his listeners that “opportunity in business
has narrowed.”

Jun 26, 2014

Condensate ruling makes mockery of U.S. oil export ban: Kemp

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. Commerce Department’s
decision to allow two companies to begin exporting ultra-light
condensate after only minimal refining marks the beginning of
the end of the ban on American crude oil exports.

The ban, which applies to crude but not refined products,
has never made much sense economically or in terms of fuel
chemistry, but now the department’s rulings show it may be
impossible to enforce in practice.

Jun 23, 2014

Can we really do without coal? Kemp

LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) – Two-thirds of the world’s
already discovered reserves of oil, coal and natural gas must
remain unburned if the rise in average global temperatures is to
be limited to 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, according to the
International Energy Agency.

But coal miners and oil and gas companies round the world
allocated $674 billion to finding even more reserves and new
ways of extracting them in 2012/13. Much of this investment
risks being wasted, according to the Carbon Tracker Initiative,
which is campaigning to get investors to think again.
(“Unburnable carbon 2013: wasted assets and stranded capital”)

Jun 20, 2014

China can learn from U.S. how to cut smog: Kemp

LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) – New air pollution standards on
emissions of mercury and other heavy metals from coal-fired
power plants will avert up to 11,000 premature deaths every year
in the United States.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says the standards
will generate benefits worth between $37 billion and $90 billion
a year – with fewer heart attacks, asthma attacks and sick days
- at a cost to coal- and oil-fired power producers of less than
$10 billion (“Regulatory impact analysis for the final air
toxics standards”, December 2011).

Jun 19, 2014

Column – Super-grid: China masters long-distance power transmission

LONDON (Reuters) – China’s power engineers have become world leaders in ultra-high-voltage transmission systems connecting far-off power sources with cities hungry for electricity.

China already has seven ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines in operation, more than any other country, carrying power over thousands of kilometers at around 800,000 or even 1 million volts.

Jun 19, 2014

Super-grid: China masters long-distance power transmission: Kemp

LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) – China’s power engineers have
become world leaders in ultra-high-voltage transmission systems
connecting far-off power sources with cities hungry for
electricity.

China already has seven ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines in
operation, more than any other country, carrying power over
thousands of kilometres at around 800,000 or even 1 million
volts.

Jun 17, 2014

U.S. petcoke exports surge as demand at home falls

LONDON (Reuters) – Petroleum coke exports from U.S. refineries hit a near-record 642,000 barrels per day in March as cheap natural gas and emissions regulations have slashed domestic consumption and forced producers to look abroad.

Coke consumption by U.S. power producers has dropped to around 5 million tonnes per year from almost 8 million a decade ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Jun 13, 2014

U.S. may have to ‘drink cup of poison’ on Iran: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – In 1988, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini “drank the cup of poison” and agreed to a U.N.-mediated ceasefire with Saddam Hussein to end the devastating Iran-Iraq war.

For Iran’s leader, whose country suffered nearly a million deaths at the hands of the enemy, with countless more wounded, the bitterness can only be imagined, but it must have seemed better than continuing to fight.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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