Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Nov 6, 2012

Nucor hedges gas prices through Encana deal: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – Steelmaker Nucor will help protect expansion of U.S. iron and steel making capacity against an expected future rise in U.S. natural gas prices by taking a 50 percent working interest in onshore gas wells to be drilled and operated by Encana.

The agreement builds on an earlier, smaller agreement between the two companies struck in 2010. But the increased number of wells covered offers Nucor much more protection against future variations in the price of natural gas, which is one of the biggest input costs for its iron and steel operations.

Nov 6, 2012

Welcome to Mountrail, North Dakota: John Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – Some analysts still question the transformative impact of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling on the oil industry. Doubters should pay a visit to Mountrail County, North Dakota.

Running little more than 40 miles from East to West, and 50 miles from North to South, with a population of 7,673, according to the North Dakota Association of Counties, Mountrail is at the epicenter of the largest drilling boom in the world. Mountrail has done more than any other place to remake the oil industry in the last decade.

Nov 5, 2012

End of the affair for hedge funds and oil? John Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – Hedge funds’ enthusiasm for U.S. crude has cooled off, at least for now, as the relentless rise in domestic shale output and the prospect of extended refinery maintenance in the Midwest extinguishes any hope of a rebound in U.S. oil futures to narrow the gap with Brent.

Hedge funds and other money managers cut their net long position in WTI-related futures and options to just 154 million barrels on October 30 from 260 million on September 18, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Nov 2, 2012

To improve forecasts, BOE needs internal overhaul: Kemp

LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – David Stockton’s gentle review of
forecasting at the Bank of England, published on Friday, does
not hide the cultural problems which have caused systematic
errors in the central bank’s inflation predictions and undercut
the credibility of its forecasting regime over the last five
years.

Despite employing dozens of the brightest economists in the
country, and spending more than 66 million pounds ($106.5
million) on monetary analysis last year, the Bank has
consistently over-predicted growth and under-predicted inflation
since 2007.

Oct 29, 2012

Hurricane set to slash fuel demand in Northeast US: Kemp

LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) – As the Northeast United States
locks down in the path of Hurricane Sandy, the freakishly large
tropical storm careening in from the Atlantic, the main impact
is likely to be on fuel demand rather than supply.

Regional product prices initially rose on Monday, but the
storm is more likely to have a bearish impact later this week.

Oct 26, 2012

NGLs, the extra ingredient in Bakken’s oil wells: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – North Dakota’s oil wells are some of the most expensive in the country, costing more than $8 million each to drill and complete. But the returns are among the highest, thanks partly to the valuable natural gas liquids (NGLs) being recovered alongside the crude and natural gas.

The associated gas bubbling up to the surface from the thousands of crude oil wells being drilled into the Bakken formation is laden with ethane, propane, butane and natural gasoline, that can be stripped out and sold separately from the methane put into the gas pipeline network.

Oct 26, 2012

Insider trading rules should apply to oil outages: Kemp

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Severe maintenance overruns at
Nexen’s Buzzard oilfield have highlighted the need for
a better regime for disclosing price sensitive information about
oil output and problems in the North Sea.

Buzzard’s delays have slashed output of the
benchmark-setting Forties crude stream in October – contributing
to a significant short-term rise in the price of crude and
refined products such as gasoline for customers across the EU.

Oct 19, 2012

Connecticut contemplates connecting more to gas: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – More than 250,000 homes could be switched from heating with fuel oil to natural gas, cutting New England’s heating oil consumption by 10 percent and providing a new market for U.S. gas producers, under ambitious plans published by Connecticut’s Department for Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP).

Even if the plan is successfully adopted and implemented, only half of Connecticut’s households will be on gas. Hundreds of thousands of homes will be stuck on expensive fuel oil, especially in the more sparsely populated areas of the state.

Oct 18, 2012

Column: Goldman calls time on the oil bull market – John Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – For much of the last decade, energy researchers at Goldman Sachs have been among the most influential and bullish forecasters in the oil market, predicting, much of the time correctly, that prices would continue to rise.

Like others, the bank failed to foresee the cataclysm that overtook the market in late 2008. But it won respect for correctly predicting the smaller downturn in prices ahead of the flash crash in May 2011.

Oct 18, 2012

Goldman calls time on the oil bull market: John Kemp

LONDON, Oct 18 (Reuters) – For much of the last decade, energy researchers
at Goldman Sachs have been among the most influential and bullish
forecasters in the oil market, predicting, much of the time correctly, that
prices would continue to rise.

Like others, the bank failed to foresee the cataclysm that overtook the
market in late 2008. But it won respect for correctly predicting the smaller
downturn in prices ahead of the flash crash in May 2011.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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