Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Jan 22, 2015

U.S. drivers put oil market on road to recovery: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – U.S. gasoline demand is
increasing as motorists opt for bigger vehicles and drive more,
encouraged by the sharp drop in fuel prices and an improving
employment market.

Increased fuel consumption in the United States and other
advanced economies is one way lower oil prices will rebalance
the market. Coupled with falling output from the major U.S.
shale plays, increasing demand will gradually eliminate excess
supply over the course of 2015 and 2016.

Jan 21, 2015

Oil producers’ under-appreciated role in U.S. economy: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) – The eight states at the heart of
the American shale oil revolution all grew faster than the U.S.
national average over the last decade, according to the U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), underscoring the importance
of oil production to the U.S. economy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to private
industry grew at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 1.8 percent
between 2002 and 2013 for the nation as a whole, after allowing
for inflation.

Jan 21, 2015

Lower oil prices will blunt drive for fuel efficiency: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – For a decade, high and rising
prices have created a strong incentive to use oil-derived fuels
more sparingly.

By the end of 2012, efficiency improvements, substitution,
and changes in behaviour had cut oil consumption in the advanced
economies by 8 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with the
pre-2005 trend, according to James Hamilton at the University of
California (“The changing face of world oil markets” July 2014).

Jan 20, 2015

Falling oil investment will hit U.S. economy: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – If capital and workers could move
instantly and without friction between industries, the plunge in
oil prices would be unambiguously positive for the U.S. economy
in the short term as well as the longer one.

Despite the growth in shale production, the United States is
still a net importer of around 5 million barrels per day of
crude and refined products, according to the Energy Information
Administration.

Jan 14, 2015

Decline curves and the outlook for U.S. shale plays: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – Decline curves are fundamental to
understanding the outlook for U.S. shale oil production over the
next two years.

Each well has its own unique production profile and there
can be enormous variation between wells in adjacent spacing
units let alone in different counties, plays and states.

Jan 14, 2015

EIA forecasts temporary peak in US oil output in May: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – U.S. crude production is set to
rise by another 300,000 barrels per day to a temporary peak in
May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
before declining over the summer.

The forecast is contained in the latest edition of the EIA’s
closely watched Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on
Tuesday (www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/).

Jan 14, 2015

California oil drillers hit hard by tumbling prices: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – California’s oil industry is
being hit harder than any other state by falling prices because
of the comparatively poor quality of its crude and its aging
fields.

The number of active drilling rigs in the state has more
than halved since June 2014, from 48 to just 21, according to
oilfield services company Baker Hughes (link.reuters.com/ruz73w).

Jan 13, 2015

Breakeven and shut-in prices for oil wells: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – How low must oil prices fall
before production starts to level off and even decline to
rebalance the market?

There is no straightforward answer because it depends on so
many factors most of which are uncertain or not observable.

Jan 12, 2015

Bakken oil wells and the Red Queen’s revenge: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) – More than 22,000 wells have been
drilled in North Dakota since oil was discovered in 1951, but
over half of state production comes from around 4,000 wells
drilled since the start of 2013.

By the end of Oct 2014, there were nearly 11,900 wells
producing oil and gas in the state. The rest proved dry, or had
been shut in or plugged and abandoned as output has dwindled.

Jan 9, 2015

Bakken oil producers need $55 a barrel to keep output steady: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – North Dakota needs an oil price of
around $55 per barrel at the wellhead and a fleet of about 140
rigs to sustain production at the current level of 1.2 million
barrels per day, the U.S. state’s chief regulator told
legislators on Thursday.

Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms outlined
breakeven rates for wells across the state and production
projections for a range of prices in a presentation for the
House Appropriations Committee of the State Legislature (here).

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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