Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Feb 10, 2015

U.S. businesses brace for oil investment downturn: Kemp

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) – Oil and gas production is
fundamental to the U.S. economy. The sharp downturn in prices
will have a negative impact on business investment in the short
term before the positive impact on consumer spending takes over
further down the line.

Oil and gas producers accounted for almost $1 in every $8 of
new business investment in the U.S. economy in 2013, according
to new data published by the Census Bureau.

Feb 10, 2015

Oil price war inflicts collateral damage in Latin America: Kemp

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Latin America’s oil producers have
become caught in the crossfire between OPEC and the North
American shale drillers.

The number of onshore rigs drilling for oil and gas in the
region fell to just 272 in January, from 339 in July 2014,
according to data published on Friday by oilfield services
company Baker Hughes.

Feb 6, 2015

A brief history of the oil crash: Kemp

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) – In 2013 and early 2014, the
growing imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market
was masked by a string of supply disruptions as a result of war,
unrest and sanctions.

After a decade of high oil prices, supplies from North
American shale plays were growing by more than 1 million barrels
per day annually, while fuel demand in the United States and
other advanced economies was more than 8 million barrels per day
below its pre-2005 trend.

Feb 4, 2015

Does oil’s rally put rebalancing at risk? Kemp

LONDON, Feb 4 (Reuters) – Brent crude prices rose almost 18
percent between Friday and Tuesday, despite the absence of real
news, which should convince even the most ardent believers in
market efficiency that oil trading is noisy and inefficient at
processing new information.

The 8 percent surge late on Friday was only the third time
in five years prices have jumped by three standard deviations in
a single day. The March 2015 Brent futures contract
gained substantially more on Monday and Tuesday. (link.reuters.com/wah93w)

Feb 2, 2015

Oil prices jolted as falling rigs wrong-foot bears: Kemp

LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Oil prices surged 8 percent on
Friday as the market digested news another 94 rigs previously
drilling for oil in the United States had been idled over the
previous week.

It was the largest number of rigs de-activated in a single
week since at least 1987 and triggered the biggest one-day
percentage increase in Brent prices since 2009.

Jan 29, 2015

U.S. crude oil stocks return to 1930s crisis levels: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) – U.S. commercial crude oil stocks
last week hit their highest level since 1931 – when the opening
of giant oil fields in the United States coincided with the
Great Depression to create an enormous glut and sent prices
tumbling to just 13 cents per barrel.

Commercial crude stocks at refineries and tank farms across
the country rose to almost 407 million barrels on Jan 23, up
from 398 million the week before, according to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) (link.reuters.com/jax83w).

Jan 28, 2015

California gasoline sales point to growing oil demand: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) – Motorists in California purchased
more gasoline in October 2014 than any corresponding month since
2007, according to state tax records, confirming the renewed
growth in U.S. fuel demand.

State gasoline consumption was 2.3 percent higher than in
the same month in 2013 and 4.1 percent higher than in 2012,
according to the California Board of Equalization, which
collects motor vehicle fuel tax in the state.

Jan 27, 2015

Factors that will drive U.S. oil production in 2015: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) – Rig counts are a highly imperfect
guide to future oil production but they are one of the few
readily available statistics on oilfield activity so it is
unwise to dismiss their importance entirely.

The sharp drop in crude oil prices since June 2014 and
associated fall in rig counts published by state regulators and
service companies such as Baker Hughes has sparked a lively
debate about the short-term outlook for U.S. oil production.

Jan 26, 2015

North Dakota oil rigs drop points to U.S. output decline after May: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – The decline in oil drilling that has occurred so far across the United States is probably enough to ensure U.S. production peaks by April or May, though that might not be evident until June or July given delays in publishing production records.

If the number of active rigs continues to decline in the next few weeks, which seems likely, it is reasonably likely U.S. oil production will be falling by June or July 2015.

Jan 22, 2015

U.S. drivers put oil market on road to recovery: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) – U.S. gasoline demand is
increasing as motorists opt for bigger vehicles and drive more,
encouraged by the sharp drop in fuel prices and an improving
employment market.

Increased fuel consumption in the United States and other
advanced economies is one way lower oil prices will rebalance
the market. Coupled with falling output from the major U.S.
shale plays, increasing demand will gradually eliminate excess
supply over the course of 2015 and 2016.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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