Senior Market Analyst, Commodities and Energy
John's Feed
Jan 14, 2015

Decline curves and the outlook for U.S. shale plays: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – Decline curves are fundamental to
understanding the outlook for U.S. shale oil production over the
next two years.

Each well has its own unique production profile and there
can be enormous variation between wells in adjacent spacing
units let alone in different counties, plays and states.

Jan 14, 2015

EIA forecasts temporary peak in US oil output in May: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – U.S. crude production is set to
rise by another 300,000 barrels per day to a temporary peak in
May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
before declining over the summer.

The forecast is contained in the latest edition of the EIA’s
closely watched Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on
Tuesday (www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/).

Jan 14, 2015

California oil drillers hit hard by tumbling prices: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – California’s oil industry is
being hit harder than any other state by falling prices because
of the comparatively poor quality of its crude and its aging
fields.

The number of active drilling rigs in the state has more
than halved since June 2014, from 48 to just 21, according to
oilfield services company Baker Hughes (link.reuters.com/ruz73w).

Jan 13, 2015

Breakeven and shut-in prices for oil wells: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – How low must oil prices fall
before production starts to level off and even decline to
rebalance the market?

There is no straightforward answer because it depends on so
many factors most of which are uncertain or not observable.

Jan 12, 2015

Bakken oil wells and the Red Queen’s revenge: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) – More than 22,000 wells have been
drilled in North Dakota since oil was discovered in 1951, but
over half of state production comes from around 4,000 wells
drilled since the start of 2013.

By the end of Oct 2014, there were nearly 11,900 wells
producing oil and gas in the state. The rest proved dry, or had
been shut in or plugged and abandoned as output has dwindled.

Jan 9, 2015

Bakken oil producers need $55 a barrel to keep output steady: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – North Dakota needs an oil price of
around $55 per barrel at the wellhead and a fleet of about 140
rigs to sustain production at the current level of 1.2 million
barrels per day, the U.S. state’s chief regulator told
legislators on Thursday.

Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms outlined
breakeven rates for wells across the state and production
projections for a range of prices in a presentation for the
House Appropriations Committee of the State Legislature (here).

Jan 9, 2015

Bakken oil producers need $55 to keep production steady: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – North Dakota needs an oil price of
around $55 per barrel and a fleet of around 140 rigs to sustain
production at the current level of 1.2 million barrels per day,
the state’s chief regulator told legislators yesterday.

Department of Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms outlined
breakeven rates for wells across the state and production
projections for a range of prices in a presentation for the
House Appropriations Committee of the State Legislature (here).

Jan 8, 2015

Facts and fantasies about commodities (revisited): Kemp

LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – Commodities were the worst
performing asset class for the third year running in 2014.

Investors, including some of the world’s largest pension
funds, have seen billions of dollars of wealth disappear as a
result of investing in commodity index products over the last
decade.

Jan 7, 2015

Bakken oil prices not far from 2008-09 lows: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) – Prices received by oil producers
in North Dakota’s Williston Basin have averaged less than $34
per barrel so far this month, according to the list of posted
prices issued by Plains Marketing.

Prices have fallen by almost two-thirds since June 2014,
when Plains posted an average price of nearly $92 per barrel for
Williston Sweet (www.paalp.com).

Jan 7, 2015

U.S. oil production will be falling by end of 2015: Kemp

LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) – Unless prices recover, U.S. oil
production will start falling before the end of 2015 as new
drilling is insufficient to replace declining output from wells
completed in 2013 and 2014.

Future production depends on the rate of decline from
existing wells (known as the decline curve) and the average age
of old oil wells as well as the number of new ones drilled and
their productivity.

    • About John

      "John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica."
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