The EU’s soft power and the big carrot
MOSCOW – Thereâ€™s a joke in Europe, the making of which is credited to Lord Chris Patten, Chancellor of Oxford University who in the 1980s was the EUâ€™s Commissioner for External Relations. Adapting President Theodore Rooseveltâ€™s advice to â€śspeak softly but carry a big stick,â€ť Patten said that the EUâ€™s attitude to foreign affairs was to â€śspeak softly but carry a big carrot.â€ť
Collectively, Europe must exercise influence through â€śsoft power.â€ť The concept was invented by Joseph Nye, the Harvard political scientist, who, in his 2004 book â€śSoft Power,â€ť defined it as the power to influence other countries without force or money. Instead, soft power draws people to it who, by â€śadmiring its values, emulating its example, aspiring to its level of prosperity and openness — want to follow it.â€ť
U.S. soft power has suffered in the past decade because the hard kind has been so prevalent. But it has not disappeared. It draws people to it still. The EU has had nothing but soft power. The â€śbig carrotâ€ť is its ability to have others â€śaspire to its level,â€ť economic or otherwise, accompanied by the promise of financial assistance. Yet Pattenâ€™s joke carries a rueful recognition that this may be a less-than-realistic approach to a hard world.
It is a testament to soft power that hundreds of thousands of people have come out in Ukraine to express their desire for an agreement that will bring them closer to the EU. Now vast protests are mounted against the Yanukovich regime, calling for (as some of the placards have said) living in a â€śnormalâ€ť country with the rule of law. The European â€ścarrotâ€ť isnâ€™t just the money it disburses to its poorer members; it is also the promise, to people who increasingly wish to call themselves â€śEuropean,â€ť of raising standards — from the quality of food to the honesty of politicians. Itâ€™s a classic case of â€śaspiring to a levelâ€ť that other neighbors have attained.
Ukraine, once the second-largest state in the Soviet Union, was the foundation of what became the Russian and then the Soviet empire. It was also the cradle of the Eastern Orthodox religion. Yet now the rhetoric of the opposition is strongly anti-Russian.
Addressing 200,000 Ukrainians who turned up on Sunday in Kiev, the former interior minister, now an opposition politician, Yuriy Lutsenko, said that this was â€śan anti-colonial revolution. Above all, Ukrainians have turned out to say to Moscow: ‘We are no longer under your command, we are an independent country.’”
In Moscow, my old friend Natasha is my constant sounding board. For her, a young woman in the last war, hungry and exhausted for most of it, Ukraine isnâ€™t an imperial possession. It is â€śours,â€ť in the â€śone of usâ€ť sense. It was greatly strengthened by the experience of World War Two when the country was under occupation — its Jewish communities slaughtered and the rest suffering. For her generation and later ones — certainly President Vladimir Putinâ€™s late 50s/early 60s generation that was raised believing in the Soviet Union — Ukraine was an inalienable part of the Russian-focused world.
I talked via Skype to Sergei Guriev, a prominent liberal Russian economist and the former head of the New Economic School. He left his post and his country for France, fearing that he may suffer arrest and an indefinite jail sentence. I had interviewed him months ago, soon after his exit. He told me then that there was â€śa banality of evilâ€ť about the high officials in Russia, who â€śjust donâ€™t think about what will happen next.â€ť
Gurievâ€™s view is that, in the short term, a continued closeness to Russia would avoid disruption with Ukraineâ€™s biggest customer for industrial output. However, Guriev said in an interview last week, â€śthereâ€™s no way in which Russia benefits Ukraine in the longer term.â€ť The Russian economy, he said, â€śis stagnating. Itâ€™s hard to agree with Putin when he says that the country has sufficient funds to see it through troubles ahead. Itâ€™s enough for now — but it soon runs out of the price for its energy falls.â€ť
Last weekend, demonstrators who remained in the tens of thousands on the â€śMaidan,â€ť or square, in Kiev were confronted with counter demonstrations from an estimated 15,000 pro-government supporters. They were mostly brought in by trains from the Donbass industrial and mining area in the eastern part of the country, and they mostly dispersed on Sunday evening.
The pro-European protestors were addressed by a gamut of foreign dignitaries, including two contrasting Americans — Sasha Grey, the rock star and former porn actress, and Senator John McCain.
Greyâ€™s tweet — â€śStay strong Kievâ€ť — got the Ukrainian twittersphere buzzing, while Senator McCain spoke of â€śan incredible display of patriotismâ€ť among the demonstrators.
It may be, as the Economist wrote last week, that this is the â€śbirth of a nation.â€ť This is the emergence of a country becoming conscious of itself as something other than part of anotherâ€™s sphere of influence, and choosing a European destiny. Or it may be that the split in the country between the pro-Russians and the pro-Europeans remains too large and deep to remain whole. Either way, the hard power that Russia has reflexively exerted on Ukraine strengthens the belief of many that Ukraine should look west for a less brutal civilization.
For Russia, it is self-defeating to see Ukraine as â€śours,â€ť whether with affection or by imperial fiat. Ukraine achieved independence, to be sure, without a struggle or much conviction when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It may, in a delayed reaction, now be finding a self-definition.
If it is the popular will, Russia must let Ukraine go west, and it should reflect on its own eternal question — â€śwhither Russiaâ€ť? Might it not, sometime this century, find a shared destiny with Europe where, for two centuries, it has both menaced and helped lift up, and from which it has taken and given so much?
PHOTO: A pro-European integration protester stands on a barricade during a rally in Independence Square in Kiev, December 16, 2013.Â REUTERS/Marko Djurica