Kathleen's Feed
Feb 21, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Two very different inflation problems

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

There was more evidence in February that the world economy is re-flating; both China and the UK released inflation data that showed prices running above 4 percent. Authorities in these economies have a difficult few months ahead, if prices continue to rise at this clip then they may have an economic crisis on their hands.

Feb 7, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

What if the U.S. labour market never returns to “normal”?

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

While the investment community trudged through the snow-fogged January labour market report, the only glimmer of hope was the fall in the unemployment rate to 9 per cent from 9.4 per cent in December. But while investors grabbed that as a sign that the economic recovery in the U.S. was back on track, the data is unlikely to have cheered Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke.

Jan 31, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Could the Middle Eastern unrest start to unsettle financial markets?

-”Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.”-

The peoples of the Middle East are rising up and letting their political views be known. In Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen protestors have taken to the streets to demand political change, and in the case of Tunisia they have succeeded. These tensions between the people and their governments have caught the global media’s attention. It has also set off something of a domino effect with other autocratic regimes in the region worrying that the same could happen to them.

Jan 24, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Who is helping who in the China-Europe relationship?

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

The saying goes that you only really know who your friends are during times of crisis. Well European officials must have been beaming after two of the world’s largest economies promised to purchase the debt of the currency bloc’s most troubled nations. China came out first and pledged to “support Spain’s financial sector”, through participating in its upcoming debt auctions. Likewise, Japan pledged to purchase a quarter of the upcoming euro zone bond sale that will help fund the bailout of Ireland.

Jan 14, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

A new paradigm for inflation

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

Looking through the minutes of the Bank of England’s policy meetings for the past year, there are a couple of patterns that you see emerge. Firstly, that rates are on hold, and secondly, that the UK’s elevated inflation rate is temporary. Now the European Central Bank has joined the chorus. ECB President Trichet recently sounded confident that prices will moderate, even though consumer prices rose above the ECB’s target rate of 2 per cent in December.

Jan 12, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

What to make of the U.S. resurgence

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

Back in the summer, things in the U.S. were so dire that the Fed had to step in to the breach and boost the economy with a $600 billion cash injection. This was only formally announced in November, yet within two months the outlook for the U.S. economy has brightened markedly. The dollar has had a flying start to the year and appreciated more than 2 per cent against the other major currencies.

Dec 16, 2010
via The Great Debate UK

Has QE2 worked?

– Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own. –

Ever since the U.S. Central Bank formally announced its second round of quantitative easing back in November, bond yields have trended higher. Ten-year Treasury yields have jumped by 100 basis points and are back at levels last reached in May 2010. Higher yields underpinned the dollar, which has risen by more than 5 percent over the same time period. So what does this tell us about the market, and has the Fed’s grand plan actually backfired?

Dec 7, 2010
via The Great Debate UK

Should a country always stand behind its banks?

Ever since the financial crisis broke in 2008 some of the world’s major banks have their governments to thank for their survival. The fates of Royal Bank of Scotland or Citibank would have been much worse without large injections of capital from the UK and U.S. authorities. The UK government pumped more than £37 billion into its largest banks in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers crisis. Ireland took that a step further when it guaranteed all of its banks’ deposits and liabilities. This was affordable, the Irish government said at the time.

However, this policy failed spectacularly. Ireland’s bailout of its banking sector brought the country to the edge of bankruptcy and forced it to accept a 82 billion euro bailout loan from the IMF/ECB and the European Union. More than 30 billion euros of this loan is to re-capitalise the Irish banking sector and the rest is to shore up the state’s finances. The conditions of the loan mean that Ireland will have to implement harsh austerity measures for many years to come that will inevitably hurt growth.

Nov 29, 2010
via The Great Debate UK

Will Europe’s peripheral debt crisis go global?

The second bailout of a Euro zone nation in less than a year has spooked the markets and looks set to be the dominant theme as we move into year end. Ireland’s financial crisis, culminating in the state’s application for EU/IMF funding on November 21, has shattered market confidence and caused some sizable moves in the forex markets. Since the start of November the euro has fallen nearly 6 percent against the dollar, and the dollar index – which measures the dollar versus its largest trading partners – has risen by 5.5 percent over the same period as the greenback attracts safe haven investor flows.

Europe’s periphery has witnessed their bond yields rise to extreme levels, Irish 10-yr yields are currently above 9 percent. The markets remain unwilling to hold Irish debt because the outlook for growth remains uncertain, which continues to worry investors that Ireland may not be able to finance its beleaguered banking sector – the nexus of the emerald isle’s fiscal woes. Right now peripheral Europe, including Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, are in a negative debt spiral. Investors sell their bonds because they believe their budget deficits are unsustainable, and then they sell them some more when austerity measures designed to reign in these deficits look like they will stunt economic growth. This is a dangerous position to be in, and right now there is no easy solution to the problems of the periphery. While the market remains willing to punish excessive budget deficits, investors need to ask who could be targeted next, and could this sovereign debt crisis go global?

Nov 19, 2010
via The Great Debate UK

Will the euro survive Europe’s latest sovereign debt crisis?

Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.

Ireland’s banking crisis reached boiling point this week. The Irish authorities are still adamant the country doesn’t need a bailout and are trying to draw a distinction between a sovereign bailout (which Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan et al claim they don’t need) and banking sector support (which they most definitely do).