Laurence's Feed
Feb 13, 2012
via The Great Debate UK

What would markets and Merkel make of Hollande?

It’s time I came out of the closet and ‘fessed up. My friends, colleagues and family all know anyway, so ……OK, here goes.

All my adult life I have been and remain a Francophile. It is a perversion I can neither defend nor explain.

Feb 6, 2012
via The Great Debate UK

Hypocrisy piled on humbug

The row over bankers‘ pay and honours has presented the depressing spectacle of British public life at its nadir, with hypocrisy piled on humbug.

On the one hand, we hear bankers and their apologists arguing that their rewards are required to keep them from running off to sunnier climes, which prompts a number of questions. First, when bankers claim that they have to be paid a fortune in recognition of the size of the organizations they run, we may well ask: how many banks of this scale are there in the world today? How many are so hungry for skills like those of Britain’s bank bosses that they are willing and able to offer these sorts of rewards?

Dec 21, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

The EU Summit was more farce than tragedy

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By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

We have now seen a series of French ministers and even the Governor of the Banque de France behaving like a footballer trying to bully the referee into booking his opposite number – impressive teamwork, but nul points for dignity.

Do they actually believe what they say? Surely at least the Governor knows that any comparison between the predicaments of Britain and France is crazy.

Nov 30, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

The euro is on life support, and the on-off switch is in Frankfurt

By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

The short term solution to the problem of how to manage the euro zone crisis may now be right there in front of us. The central issue, as far as Germany is concerned at least, is how to reconcile bailing out the other member countries with keeping up the pressure on them to put their fiscal house in order. Quietly, without any official recognition of the fact, the ECB has taken charge of the situation and is now effectively running fiscal policy for most of the euro zone by simply buying enough Greek, Italian, Spanish and maybe French bonds to keep yields from going too high, but not buying so many as to reduce yields to anything like comfortable levels.

Moreover, treasury officials in every country will be only too well aware that what the ECB giveth, the ECB can take away. Any relaxation in austerity regimes can always be countered by an end to ECB purchases or even by ECB sales in the secondary market, driving yields back up in the space of a few minutes to 7%, 8% and beyond. In short, most of the euro zone members are now  on a life support machine, and the on-off switch is in Frankfurt.

Nov 9, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Put the euro zone out of its misery

By Laurence Copeland. The author is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.

Let me make a wild guess – just a hunch, a vague feeling, the kind you get when you hear a football club chairman say “the manager has my full support”. My forecast is that the IMF monitors currently poring over the Italian government’s books will uncover a black hole somewhere, probably one big enough to swallow the euro zone, and the discovery will leave them as shocked as Captain Renault when he found there was gambling going on at Rick’s Bar in Casablanca.

Nov 3, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Capitalism and democracy under threat from euro zone crisis

By Laurence Copeland. The author is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.

It takes quite a lot to make me feel sorry for politicians, especially the European variety, but I must say that Nicholas Sarkozy and particularly Angela Merkel have a right to be livid at the news that the Greek government now proposes to hold a referendum on whether they will agree to be given another gigantic dollop of aid. Having only reached agreement (of a very vague kind) at last week’s summit in the early hours of the morning, you can imagine how the French and German leaders must have felt when they discovered that their marathon negotiating sessions may all have been in vain. It seems the Greeks are now too wary of foreigners bearing gifts to accept their largesse without weeks or months of prior deliberation and debate.

Oct 26, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

A 6-1 defeat is not a draw

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Michael Gove trying to laugh off Monday’s rebellion by 81 backbenchers sounds like a United supporter arguing that 6-1 was more or less a draw. For all the excuses, he can’t hide the fact that the government’s position is full of contradictions.

On the one hand, the PM has added his voice to the chorus calling for the euro zone to turn itself into a monetary-and-fiscal union, a proposal which certainly goes with the grain of the crisis. The idea has the support of the Americans and would probably be warmly welcomed in Asia too. In fact, it has great appeal everywhere except in the euro zone itself, where the main protagonists themselves have got a severe attack of cold feet.

Oct 18, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Salvation through inflation: The British way out

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By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

Accusing policymakers of acting out of sheer desperation is a pretty standard jibe by critics trying to put them off their stride.

Unfortunately, the latest round of QE came wrapped in comments from the Governor of the Bank of England which amounted, more or less, to saying: “Look! I’m staying calm – but it’s taking a hell of an effort, believe me!”

Oct 10, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

The euro zone marriage is over

By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

Under the Arc de Triomphe, tourists can gaze up at the engraved list of Napoleon’s great victories: Austerlitz, Jena, Wagram… Perhaps a similar triumphal arch should be built in Brussels to commemorate the string of victories won by a tiny band of heroic Eurocrats over the mass of their combined electorates: Rome, Maastricht, Lisbon, Wroclaw, and now Berlin, where, to nobody’s surprise, the integrationists in the Bundestag have easily seen off the opposition to their plan to bolster the EFSF. Cue the now-familiar backslapping in Europe after each of their knife-edge victories over the forces of democracy.

The starting point for these Eurocrats/integrationists is that the popular will is simply an obstacle on the road to the ultimate destination of a United States of Europe. Whenever they encounter one of these inconvenient roadblocks, they fume, argue among themselves about the merits of alternative routes until they finally swerve triumphantly round the obstacle, congratulating each other for their ingenuity and skill.

Sep 19, 2011
via The Great Debate UK

Geithner’s fudge won’t kill the euro zone debt Ouroboros

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner (R) leaves after talks with Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski in Wroclaw, September 16, 2011. Geithner urged euro zone ministers to leverage their 440 billion euro bailout fund and free more resources to tackle the debt crisis. REUTERS/Mieczyslaw Michalak/Agencja Gazeta

The frosty reception given to US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at the ECOFIN meeting in Poland last week tells you all you need to know about what is wrong with the EU. The hostility was directed not at the feebleness of the advice he had to give, but at the right of an American passport-holder to offer any advice at all to the policymaking elite of Europe, who are so obviously capable of handling the crisis themselves without any outside assistance.

    • About Laurence

      "Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs."
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