MacroScope

The likelihood the Bank of England cuts interest rates again on Nov 3 has been pretty much pushed off the table by official data showing the British economy has so far defied fears of a hit from Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

Last year’s behind-the-scenes selection of three men with ties to Goldman Sachs to serve atop the Federal Reserve did not go over well with outspoken civic groups and many Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, who have all called for a more transparent and inclusive central bank. In response to the critics, the Fed has rolled out a series of announcements, online forums and face-to-face meetings with Americans to portray a more open process of selecting its 12 district presidents that is also more sensitive to racial and gender diversity.

To people (like me) who have gotten used to hearing the same catch-phrases from Angela Merkel in speech after speech, her appearance on Monday was a surprise — perhaps one of the biggest since she became chancellor 11 years ago. Leaders don’t like to admit mistakes. But Merkel not only took responsibility for the poor performance of her CDU in an election in the city-state of Berlin, she also conceded that she would have handled the refugee challenge differently if she could go back in time. She was not apologizing for opening German borders a year ago. That would have been a step too far. But she was admitting that she failed to heed warning signs that a wave of refugees was building and to act early enough to counter or control it. She told her audience that she was ditching her signature phrase “wir schaffen das” (we can do this) because some people viewed it as a provocation. Her body language was different. She read from a prepared speech for nearly 12 minutes. This was a carefully orchestrated mea culpa.

Contrary to now widely-held belief, the rather poor outlook for the UK economy since the country’s vote to leave the European Union on June 23 has barely changed.

The rising sun over Copacabana beach is reflected in a window in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 23, 2016. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Lurking beneath the surprisingly strong rebound in manufacturing shown by the latest Markit/CIPS PMI, there were clear signs that inflation is about to shoot higher –and perhaps in a big way.

Most signs are pointing to another strong set of U.S. jobs data, even if wage inflation still hasn’t picked up in the same way.

As central bankers gather at Jackson Hole and every investor waits on the edge of their seat for a clearer signal on the direction and future of Federal Reserve monetary policy, one thing has remained fairly constant.

…could one day become Tencent.

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The Chinese internet giant is at the cusp of becoming the country’s most valuable firm. Its mighty rise has taken its valuation to $250 billion, second only to China Mobile, and well ahead of the large state-owned banks and oil companies that have dominated China’s capital markets for the better part of the past decade. The rise of a Shenzhen-based, private company at the crossroads of internet technology, social media and gaming reflects several changes under way in China.

British retail sales figures for July could pleasantly surprise economists after data on Wednesday showed the country’s labour market performed much better than expected in the month after the Brexit vote.