Hard to imagine with financial markets still buoyant and newspapers full of tales of bonus greed, but there is still the possibility that captialism will end.  At least there is according to prestigious investment consultants Watson Wyatt in their latest study called “Extreme Risks“.

The firm listed the demise of the system of private ownership as one of 15 threats to investors and the global economy that probably won’t happen but which it reckons are worth worrying about anyway. The idea behind the report is that such things as climate change, the break up of the euro zone and war are always worth being included in an investment risk management process.

As for the future of capitalism:

In our view, the most likely scenario is moving along from one end of a spectrum where market is king (minimum regulation) towards the other end, where we could see more onerous regulations and government intervention in, and control of, the economy. The extreme risk, however, is the demise of the capitalist system and the end of the market as the primary means of resource allocation.

And the impact:

The economy would be likely to run a higher risk of failure and economic growth would be sluggish in the long run due to lower productivity.  Centrally controlled economies tend to be characterised by shortages, which are inherently inflationary. Private investment activities would collapse or even be terminated. The end of capitalism is simply the ultimate extreme risk. The economy is likely to be associated with extreme uncertainty and a large amount of wealth destruction during the transition period.

Watson Wyatt does try to give its free market clients some hope, suggesting that buying gold may be one way to hedge against the propect of capitalism’s demise. But it admitted that in cush a circumstance investors would probably be more concerned about the return of  their investments rather that the return on  them.

(Illustration called The Communist Party, from Threadless)

It may not get as much attention as the monthly employment report or GDP figures, but the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s gauge of the national economy has a good track record of distinguishing economic expansions from recessions. And it’s suggesting that the U.S. recovery may be wobbling.

Over at the econbrowser blog, economist James Hamilton points us to a recent research paper that examines how accurate the various economic indicators are at telling us when the economy is growing or contracting. The Chicago Fed’s national index was one of the best. And Monday’s report shows it faded in October.

Not only that, but its three-month moving average fell to -0.91 in October from -0.67 in September, declining for the first time in 2009. That drop was especially significant because the Chicago Fed says a move below -0.70 in the three-month moving average following a period of economic expansion indicates an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun.

Of course, the people who are tasked with determining when recessions begin and end haven’t called the latest one over yet. So is this report showing a speed bump on the way to a recovery or something more ominous?  

For telecoms-tycoon-turned-philanthropist Mo Ibrahim, it's one step forward, two steps back. For Benno Ndullu, governor of the central Bank of Tanzania, the whole thing is bound to stall unless problems are ironed out first.

For many Tanzanians, it's a threat to their jobs, language and prospects.

But for the leaders of the five-member East African Community (EAC), signing the common market protocol on Friday represents the future fortunes of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda combined.

Signing the document -- the culmination of a relatively speedy 18 months of negotiation -- will mean goods, services and the community's 126 million people can move freely across their borders, in theory at least.

Together, the five countries muster $60 billion in gross domestic product combined, and believe they can prosper better as one unit than apart.

Already they have a customs union, but by 2012 they foresee sharing a single currency and finally political federation.

"If you don't get the economic integration process going in Africa you're dead," Tim Clarke, head of delegation at the European Commission in Tanzania, told the Mo Ibrahim Foundation meeting on good governance last weekend.

There are plenty of creases to be ironed out, however -- whether Rwandans should switch the side of the road they drive on to match up with the region or whether home-made goods are prepared to fight it out against cheaper imports unencumbered by import duties.

Sometimes described as a bowl of spaghetti, many countries belong to overlapping regional economic communities, which makes negotiating as a single bloc tricky.

Other contentious issues include land ownership, common external tariffs, travel documents and protection of ill-prepared local manufacturers and workers.

For EAC Secretary General, Ambassador Juma Mwapachu, who is also a Tanzanian citizen, it is important to overcome what he calls "this zero-sum mindset that these people are coming to take our jobs".

"The common market is going to send another right signal to the region in terms of enticing investors," he told the Mo Ibrahim Foundation at the weekend.

Some think the countries are nevertheless overambitious in their timescale, while also being slowed down by lengthy protocol: among their planning duties, heads of state mulled "a report on the finalisation of the development of the EAC Anthem".

But as they promote cultural cohesion with EAC football, a new EAC headquarters and yes, the new anthem, many are hoping to put the previous failure of the EAC -- which ran for ten years until it was dissolved amid rancour in 1977 -- far behind them.

Will it work this time?

An interesting post on ING’s new eZonomics blog points the reader to a new study on older workers and health.  The findings — as reported in The Lancet — don’t at first glance look terribly surprising:

A poor work environment and health complaints before retirement were associated with a steeper yearly increase in the prevalence of suboptimum health while still in work, and a greater retirement-related improvement; however, people with a combination of high occupational grade, low demands, and high satisfaction at work showed no such retirement-related improvement.

In simple terms, this is saying that if a worker is happy, their health is better. Anyone who has ever had a bad job could have told them that! But the study, of course takes it further.

Working life for older workers needs to be redesigned to achieve higher labour-market participation.

This has broad implications, given the trend away from final salary pensions and the general view that workers are going to have to work longer than in previous generations. Companies that are faced with workers who cannot easily retire because of a lack of pension savings, that need people to work longer  and that are subject to increasing anti-age discrimination will need to take the employment needs of older employees on board.

It may not be easy. As the ING post points out, the OECD looks at the issue in a 2006 report entitled “Live Longer, Work Longer”. It began its report:

In an era of rapid population ageing, many employment and social policies, practices and attitudes that discourage work at an older age have passed their sell-by date and need to be overhauled. They not only deny older workers choice about when and how to retire but are costly for business, the economy and society.

Then comes the recommendations:

– There must be strong financial incentives to carry on working and existing, subsidised pathways to early retirement have to be eliminated.
– Wage-setting and employment practices must be adapted to ensure that employers have stronger incentives to hire and retain older workers.
– Older workers must be given appropriate help and encouragement to improve their employability.
– A major shift in attitudes to working at an older age will be required on the part of both employers and older workers themselves

Is any of this being done?

This week has seen a rush of key policymakers and business executives from Africa flocking to London. Apart from Sierra Leone, oil and gas executives have been discussing the outlook for Equatorial Guinea, a small central African state rich in oil.

Equatorial Guinea made a relatively rare foray into the global news earlier this month for a presidential pardon of  former British army officer Simon Mann, who was serving a 34-year prison sentence in the country for his role in a failed coup d’etat in 2004.

Gabriel Obiang Lima, vice minister of mines, industry and energy, was in London to talk about his ambition for the country. “Our aim is not to be the Kuwait of the region. It’s to be the Singapore of the region,” he told dozens of business executives in a conference in London on Wednesday.

“Equatorial Guinea has to have other industries that are not dependent on oil and gas.”

But it has a long way to go towards establishing a Singapore-like country. The U.S. State Department says application of the laws remains selective and corruption among officials is widespread, and many business deals are concluded under nontransparent circumstances.

The vice minister says Equatorial Guinea is investing heavily in ports, health care and infrastructure.

“Talk is cheap but we have to deliver,” he said, wrapping up his 40-minute speech.

The title of this post is taken from two sources. One was a headline in British tabloid, The Sun, in January 1979, when then-prime minister James Callaghan denied that strike-torn Britain was in chaos. The second was the title of a 1975 album by prog rock band Supertramp that famously showed someone sunbathing amidst the grey awfulness of the declining industrial landscape.

Are we now getting blasé about the latest crisis? Not so long ago, perfectly respectable economists and financial analysts were talking about a new Great Depression. The world was on the brink, it was said. Now, though, consensus appears to be that it is all over bar the shouting. The world is safe.

Wealth managers at Barclays have gone as far as telling their clients to get over it.

Move past the crisis …. The past year’s events were deeply traumatic for most investors, but now is the time to move on, and take a more “business as usual” approach ….”

Such bullishness may not be comforting to the record numbers of jobless in parts of the world, but it is bordering on consensus. It is left to the likes of perma-bears such as  Nouriel Roubini to try to burst the bubble of optimism on which many are floating. The economist began one of his latest articles bluntly:

Think the worst is over? Wrong.

Roubini’s main point is that unemployment is likely to get worse rather than better and that many U.S. jobs that have been lost will not come back.

Now, there can obviously be a disconnect between markets and economics, but the former tends to be based on assumptions about the latter. So which is right? Are we out of the woods? Or should Supertramp be firing up their keyboards again?

Even the best golfers -- yes, you Tiger Woods -- systematically miss the opportunity to score a "birdie" (when a golfer sinks a ball one stroke below par, or what is expected) out of fear of having a "bogey" (or taking one stroke more than par), according to a study by two University of Pennsylvania professors.

However, playing it safe has its own costs in golf and business, Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer, professors of economics and psychology at the Wharton School, said in their paper entitled "Is Tiger Woods Loss Averse? Persistent Bias in the Face of Experience, Competition, and High Stakes."

The professors studied putts during pro golf tournaments and their research suggested the "agony of a bogey seems to outweigh the thrill of a birdie." They calculated that type of decision-making bias costs the average golfer about 1 stroke during a 72-hole tournament, translating to a combined loss of about $1.2 million in prize money per year for the top 20 golfers.

"This research provides evidence that people work especially hard in order to avoid losses," Pope said.

The researchers found that golfers avoid the possibility of loss by playing conservatively when they could do better than par, but will try harder if they are at risk of coming in above par. Pope said "loss aversion" is part of a growing field of behavioral economics, which explores how human psychology impacts markets and business.

In a business context, the professors said par might be equated to quarterly earnings or investors' approach to selling or holding on to stocks depending on what they initially paid for the shares.

The professors said their work challenges theories that suggest bias in decision making does not persist in markets. They used data from 230 PGA Tour golf tournaments between 2004 and 2009, concentrating on 2.5 million putts attempted by 412 golfers who each made at least 1,000 putts.

Pope, who does not golf, and Schweitzer, who only occasionally plays, said the study shows even experts in a subject suffer from bias in high-stakes settings.

"The bottom line is this," said Schweitzer, "If Tiger Woods is biased when he plays golf, what hope do the rest of us have?"

(Reuters photo by Mick Tsikas)

Bill Belichick has been crucified metaphorically by many pundits and fans for his gamble late in a National Football League game against the unbeaten Indianapolis Colts, but one top economist says the coach many previously called a genius made the right decision Sunday even if it backfired on him.

Belichick chose to have the Patriots go for a first down late in the fourth quarter with his team deep in its own territory and clinging to a lead on the road. New England failed to convert and the Colts immediately drove for the winning score in its 35-34 victory. And the second guessing began.

However, Greg Mankiw, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush and now an economist at Harvard University, said on his blog that sometimes even the optimal strategy fails.

"It did not work out well in this particular case, and Belichick is coming under some heat for his call," Mankiw said. "This does not mean ... Belichick (is) wrong. Some strategies that fail ex post might be optimal ex ante. Randomness is a fact of life, even if Patriots' fans do not fully appreciate it."

Belichick defended his decision again on Monday. He should take heart that most people face criticism in their lives, including Mankiw, who in 2004 came under heavy fire for saying outsourcing of U.S. jobs to workers overseas may benefit the U.S. economy.

(Reuters photo by Brent Smith)

It seems to have been an honest mistake for a new minister and Japan's new government.

"I didn't know about that (the release time). I'm sorry. Don't make much of a fuss" Japanese Trade Minister Masayuki Naoshima told a TV reporter on Monday, right after he accidentally revealed the GDP figures ahead of their official release.

The minister looked sincerely surprised when informed of the official release time, but the light tone of his comments suggested that he did not fully understand the gravity of the error. 

He later offered a more formal apology, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano reprimanded Naoshima for his leak of the market-sensitive data, which showed Japan's economy grew much more than expected in the third quarter.

Still, I was surprised to see Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama smiling when asked about Naoshima's mistake.

"I can understand his wanting to spread the good news to the public," Hatoyama told reporters.  "But the rule should be maintained. If you say he was careless, he surely was, and in that sense, it was regrettable."

Naoshima made the blunder in a speech to the oil industry, but the small crowd of domestic reporters covering his event did not report it, and in that sense, the new minister was lucky.

Overall, Japanese media coverage of the leak has been relatively small, considering how it could have moved financial markets. 

I remember how the then Liberal Democratic Party-led Japanese government in 1999 was forced to confirm economic growth figures, after a business daily reported GDP data ahead of its official release.  At that time, share prices surged and the yen jumped after the report.

Since then, the government has become more careful about handling GDP data and the release time has been moved from mid-afternoon to 8:50 a.m. -- before the stock market opens.  

Monday's numbers were the first GDP figures since Hatoyama's Democratic Party took power, though I cannot help but wonder how a senior official of the world's No.2 economy was not wise to their potential sensitivity.

"They still haven't got out of the habit of being an opposition party," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan. "It is embarrassing.... It makes me sad as a Japanese citizen."

Photo credit: REUTERS/Toru Hanai

You know the American dollar is in trouble when… 
There is plenty of discussion about the fate of the U.S. greenback these days, what with multi-trillion dollar rescues still flowing through the financial system. But dollar bulls might feel just a little trepidation to see Jay Johnson, former head of the U.S. mint — the folks that print the stuff — become a spokesperson for gold. Johnson actually passed away last month, but he can still be seen on TV infomercials, singing gold’s praises.  

Gold this week rallied to a new record high above $1100 an ounce, even as the dollar sank to a 15-month low against a basket of major currencies. 

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said this week he was mindful of the possibility that the central bank’s pledge to keep interest rates at rock-bottom lows for an “extended period” might be fueling the carry trade. That’s when investors use a “cheap” low-yielding currency to fund trades on riskier assets with loftier returns.

He added that the dollar’s decline had not been disorderly so far, but that he would expect the FOMC (the Fed’s policy-setting committee) and other authorities to craft an appropriate remedy if that were to happen.