MacroScope

Welcome to “The Great Recession”

March 12, 2009

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a name. We are living through “The Great Recession”. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, used the term to describe our current angst on a trip to Africa this week. He may not have been the first to use it — we have found other citations, including JPMorgan — but the guessing here is that it may  stick with him because of his role.

It’s a pretty neat moniker, actually. It resonates, of course, with “Great Depression” but without the soup lines and Hoovervilles. At the same time, it differentiates between the severe contraction now under way and run-of-the-mill economic misery. It also has the snappiness that media folks like — hence this post.

The Bretton Woods duo of IMF and World Bank have been underlining how bad things are. Strauss-Kahn, for example, tells Reuters that delays in bank restructuring could mean economic recovery is not on the cards even in 2010 (which sounds a long way off, but is only next year). Then comes Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, who opines to Britain’s Daily Mail that global growth will probably fall about 1 to 2 percent this year.

Not that any of this is particularly surprising to economists. Reuters polled around 250 of them in the past week or so and found expectations of a 1.4 percent contraction in the U.S. economy this year, a 2.6 percent one in the euro zone and a 4.0 percent one in Japan over its next fiscal year.

So “Great Recession” it appears to be. Unless you think otherwise, in which case, suggestions below, please.

(Reuters photo: Dylan Martinez)

Comments
2 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

Recession vs. depression? How about recession vs. collapse? This is the question Gregor Macdonald asks, and he favors the latter answer. His prognosis? “Based on historical studies, the asset that will survive any endgame of global deflation is gold – with oil also being considered ‘Not as money, but as a store of value.’”

Via Stock Research Portal (http://www.stockresearchportal.com)

Posted by Kip | Report as abusive
 

Kip refers, I belive, to this article:
http://gregor.us/ng/rock-scissors-paper- recession-vs-collapse/

Posted by Jeremy Gaunt | Report as abusive
 

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