MacroScope

Gauging recovery with Google

April 15, 2009

Disappointing U.S. data on Tuesday and other negative corporate news have poured cold water into hopes that the worst is over for the global economy.

Fixed income strategists at Societe Generale looked up ”green shoots economy” on search engine Google and the website delivered 12.5 million hits over the past month. Today, there are about 5 million references. There are a mere 1.82 million references on “bear market rally”.

Could Google searches be taken as a contrarian indicator?  SocGen analysts say recovery hopes are overrated. “More bank news will be coming along this week and the risk now looms to the downside, given the better news already priced in,” the bank says in a note to clients.

Post Your Comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/