U.S. recession’s ending. Now what?

August 10, 2009

The latest Blue Chip survey of economists is out this morning, and there’s general agreement on one point: the longest recession since the Great Depression is about to end, if it hasn’t already. Some 87 percent of the economists surveyed thought the National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually declare the recession ended prior to the end of September.

What happens next is up for debate. The survey found that about 16 percent expect a strong V-shaped recovery. An equal percentage expects a W-shaped double-dip recession. Most economists — about 65 percent — were lumped in the middle, looking for a long, slow U-shaped recovery.

They also seem to think that last Friday’s jobs report, which showed the jobless rate dipped for the first time in 15 months, was just a head-fake. The consensus view is that unemployment peaks at 10.2 percent, compared with the current level of 9.4 percent, and nearly half thought that level would be reached in the first quarter of 2010.

So, what’s your take? Pick a letter, any letter, but if you choose something other than L, V, U or W, you’ll have to explain it.


We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

Who know? I bet the economists have no clue but are just making bets.

But I hope for a W shape recover because I am underinvested and wants to buy stocks around S&P at 600 level.

Posted by TH | Report as abusive

Wishful thinking,

these are the same geniuses who didn’t see the recession back in 2007. And now they predict it’s end?.

Prepare your lives for a long and enduring uphill climb. Don’t believe any of these morons who never saw it coming in the first place

Posted by larry | Report as abusive

How about ‘O’?

Posted by Vish | Report as abusive

[…] are finally re-starting assembly lines after months of slashing their inventories. With signs pointing toward an end to the recession, companies are trying to re-stock their shelves, hoping that demand will […]

Posted by Financial and Economic news » New York Manufacturing Index Shoots Up | Report as abusive

[…] MacroScope comes this gem about the “recovery” we are supposed to be experiencing . The Blue Chip Survey published August 10 indicated that economists were in agreement about one […]

Posted by No Job? No problem. The recovery is on its way! « The Illinois Bankruptcy Lawyer Blog | Report as abusive

in reply to the guy that says ‘what do they know’ and says that these economists didn’t predict the recession.. some didn’t but one of the economists that was part of this poll definitely did – and he predicted it exactly: Nouriel Roubini – he’s one who is predicting a double dip recession. What I’d ALSO like to point out – so far these economists were dead on about unemployment.. they said it would peak at 10.2% and so far the signs say they were dead right – actually if it doesn’t double dip – they were uncanny with that prediction… so folks, they aint as dumb as you think.. you’d do well to pay attention. Myself I still think we will have a sluggish V recovery but not a double dip – but I’m just an optimist.. not an economist

Posted by Dkennedy | Report as abusive