The latest Blue Chip survey of economists is out this morning, and there’s general agreement on one point: the longest recession since the Great Depression is about to end, if it hasn’t already. Some 87 percent of the economists surveyed thought the National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually declare the recession ended prior to the end of September.
What happens next is up for debate. The survey found that about 16 percent expect a strong V-shaped recovery. An equal percentage expects a W-shaped double-dip recession. Most economists — about 65 percent — were lumped in the middle, looking for a long, slow U-shaped recovery.
They also seem to think that last Friday’s jobs report, which showed the jobless rate dipped for the first time in 15 months, was just a head-fake. The consensus view is that unemployment peaks at 10.2 percent, compared with the current level of 9.4 percent, and nearly half thought that level would be reached in the first quarter of 2010.
So, what’s your take? Pick a letter, any letter, but if you choose something other than L, V, U or W, you’ll have to explain it.
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Who know? I bet the economists have no clue but are just making bets.
But I hope for a W shape recover because I am underinvested and wants to buy stocks around S&P at 600 level.
- Posted by THWishful thinking,
these are the same geniuses who didn’t see the recession back in 2007. And now they predict it’s end?.
Prepare your lives for a long and enduring uphill climb. Don’t believe any of these morons who never saw it coming in the first place
- Posted by larryHow about ‘O’?
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