MacroScope

The White House budget proposal released on Monday assumes the U.S. economy is heading for a six-year run of above-average economic growth with no sign of a worrisome spike in inflation or interest rates.
The forecasts underlying President Barack Obama’s budget plan show real gross domestic product rising 2.7 percent this year, which is largely in line with private forecasts.
Beginning in 2011, the White House’s projections diverge. It expects six consecutive years of strong growth ranging from 3.2 percent to 4.3 percent — well above what most economists consider the longer-term trend of around 2.6 percent.
The last time the economy saw a similar streak of strong growth was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com boom.
The missing link is still jobs. Despite the rosy economic forecast, the White House sees the jobless rate only slowly declining from the current 10 percent level. In fact, the forecast shows the unemployment rate won’t dip below 6 percent until 2015.
Strong growth. Weak labor market. Can we really have both for six years?