Building BRICs in Africa
Some eye-catching numbers from Standard Bank out today on the influence of BRICs countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — on Africa.
First off, the bank says the global recession and its recovery have been nourishing these so-called South-South ties. But it is all now ready to take off. The bank estimates:
– By 2015, BRIC-Africa trade will have incresed threefold, to $530 billion from $150 billion this year.
– BRICs share of Africa’s total trade will increase from one-fifth today to one-third in the next five years.
– BRICS foreign direct investment stock in Africa will swell to more than $150 billion from around $60 billion today.
Standard Bank bases these assertions partly on estimates for BRICs growth over the next five years — eg, domestic output, global output and a doubling of BRICs trade with the world in general. But it also sees Africa growing rapidly — for example, a per capita real annual growth rate of 5.7 percent between now and 2015, and a doubling of private consumption in Africa’s 10 largest economies. And it adds:
Crucially, a host of global-minded corporates is emerging from the BRICs. In 2010 231 (11.5 percent of the total) companies listed in the Forbes Global 2000 originated in the BRICs, up from only 83 companies (4 percent) in 2005. Recent trends are a harbinger of deeper potential.