Reading the ECB runes, March edition

March 15, 2012

Economists seeking insight into the kind of analysis the European Central Bank is using to support its policy decisions can get hints from its monthly bulletin. Not for everyone, but here’s what is in March’s edition:

* The effective exchange rates of the euro – revised trade weights in the light of global economic integration

* Recent developments in the financial account of the euro area balance of payments

* Impact of the two three-year longer-term refinancing operations

* Liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the period from 9 November 2011 to 14 February 2012

* Developments in the issuance and yield spreads of euro area government debt securities

* The impact of recent changes in indirect taxes on the HICP

* Labour market adjustment in the euro area

* Recent developments in consumer confi dence and the link with private consumption

* Longer-term developments in extra-euro area and intra-euro  area trade

* ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

* Government debt projections in Portugal

* Main elements of the fiscal compact

* Cyclical adjustment of the government budget balance

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