MacroScope

UK recession in charts

April 25, 2012

Britain’s economy slid into its second recession since the financial crisis after official data unexpectedly showed a fall in output in the first three months of 2012:

Starting real GDP at 100 in 2003 for the UK, U.S. and euro zone shows UK GDP flat since mid-2010 and well below the 2007 peak.

Survey data had been suggesting a stronger GDP number and perhaps points to upwards revisions to come.

As this chart shows past revisions have been substantial.

The UK (along with other economies) enjoyed low levels of volatility in GDP data from the mid-eighties through to the financial crisis, could we now be looking at a return to pre-eighties levels of volatility?

The Office of National Statistics compares GDP from 2008 and finds the UK is weaker relative to its pre-recession peak than at the corresponding stage of the depression in the early 1930s.

 

 

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